A look at how many wins the Nationals are looking at with the additions of Gio Gonzalez and...

A look at how many wins the Nationals are looking at with the additions of Gio Gonzalez and possibly Prince Fielder.

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5 months ago David Fung 5 comments 0 recs |

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Comments

Wild Card Seems Plausible with Fielder.....

I was just wondering, the author here states that the addition of Fielder results in 86 wins. Another poster stated that he has the Nats at 82 wins now, and Fielder adds another 3 (85). The one thing that I don’t like about these types of projections, is that no one truly knows what the addition of Fielder would actually mean to the remaining lineup. I’ve seen it argued both ways here….would a bat like that in this lineup actually improve the other bats? I don’t know. Will Morse regress? Probably a little. Dez, Espi and Ramos? I think we see a slight improvement with each of them. I also think that Werth improves significantly next year. Having a full season lineup of Dez, Espinosa, Zim, Fielder, Werth, Morse, Ramos, and Harper…..along with the pitching lineup…..would seem to continue a 10 game per season improvement. Barring bad luck and injury problems, I would not be surprised to see 90+ wins and a second place finish for the Nats in 2012, IF they sign Fielder. And, to be brutally honest….I am not seeing the love affair with the Atlanta Braves; they seem to have a little work they need to do as well.

by sullyzz on Jan 4, 2012 12:57 PM EST reply actions

Like the guy that made the CAIRO projections says, this is super early projections

Take it for what it’s worth, but I certainly think it’s possbie for the wild card. I think they can finish second, but I’d think the Nats will probably be one win above the Braves. A very generous guess would say that the Nats can finish with 89 wins if Morse, Ramos, and Zimmerman get more than 500 PA. These numbers are based off of:

Morse: 352 PA, 1.6 WAR
Ramos: 340 PA, 1.9 WAR
Zimmerman: 467 PA, 2.8 WAR

So you can imagine what they can do with everyone playing healthy.

by David Fung on Jan 4, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you a bat like Prince's should improve the others.

I guess there is no matrix for that assumption and stats geeks need to have a formula and input to make it all work. Oye! I’ll stick with music…

by Berndaddy on Jan 4, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

The Braves need a couple of pieces

But they are overall a pretty well-balanced team. If Chipper and Hanson stay healthy and Heyward bounces back, they will be in the race all season. The Nats should not underestimate them.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 4, 2012 2:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

It would obviously take a lot from the Braves in a trade…..but it would seem that Hanley Ramirez would be a decent fit in Atlanta; however, I guess they have a rookie waiting in the wings to take over SS by next season. I am a little surprised nonetheless that the Braves have not pushed harder this off-season for the upgrades they need. If I were still a Braves fan, I would be very concerned about our Nats, with or without the Nats signing Fielder.

by sullyzz on Jan 4, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions