FanPost

Over-Under Results



At the beginning of the season I posted a bunch of over/under propositions for the season.

Link to that: http://www.federalbaseball.com/2012/3/27/2906116/2012-overs-and-unders-what-do-you-think

The Federal Baseball community ended up being correct on 13 of the 19 props that ended up either over or under. (There were also two that pushed.) Here's how it broke down.

PITCHERS

John Lannan - 117 days on Nationals 40-man roster, starting April 5 (117 days later is July 31)

Result: Over (full season). Vote: 6-2 over. Verdict: Correct

Stephen Strasburg - 150 innings pitched

Result: Over (159). Vote: 7-1 over. Verdict: Correct

Gio Gonzalez - 92 walks

Result: Under (76). Vote: 6-2 under. Verdict: Correct.

Jordan Zimmermann - 1 HR/9

Result: Under (0.8). Vote: 4-3 under. Verdict: Correct.

Chien-Ming Wang - 15 starts

Result: Way under (5). Vote: 4-3 under. Verdict: Incorrect.

Relief pitchers not named Drew Storen - 10 saves

Result: Way over (47). Vote: 4-4 split. Verdict: Split, although we all underestimated Storen's injury.

POSITION PLAYERS

Adam LaRoche - 100 games played

Result: Way over (154). Vote: 6-2 over. Verdict: Correct.

Danny Espinosa - 162 strikeouts

Result: Over (189). Vote: 6-1 under. Verdict: Incorrect. Very incorrect.

Jayson Werth - .264 batting average

Result: Over (.297). Vote: 7-1 over. Verdict: Correct!

Ryan Zimmerman - 142 games played

Result: Barely over (144). Vote: 7-0 over. Verdict: Correct.

Ian Desmond - 23 errors

Result: Under (15). Vote: 4-3 under. Verdict: Correct.

Wilson Ramos - 1.5 walkoff homers

Result: Under (0). Vote: 7-1 under. Verdict: Correct. (This was my worst-conceived prop.)

Michael Morse - 25 total homers

Result: Under (18). Vote: 4-2 under. Verdict: Correct. (Which kind of surprises me.)

Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel - 10 combined homers

Result: Push! (Vote was 7-1 over.)

Bryce Harper - June 1st call-up date (over for after June 1st, under for before)

Result: Way under (April 28, I think?). Vote: 6-2 over. Verdict: Very wrong.

Players at shortstop not named Desmond - 15 starts before September 1

Result: Over (34), though due to injury not effectiveness. Vote: 5-2 over. Verdict: Correct.

MANAGEMENT

Davey Johnson - 6 ejections

Result: Way under (1). Vote: 8-0 under. Verdict: Correct. (And I definitely dropped the ball on the line.)

TEAM (this is where this gets fun!)

2nd and a half place in the NL East

Result: Over (1st place!!) Vote: 7-1 under. Verdict: Incorrect, thankfully.

84.5 regular season wins

Result: Way Over (98)! Vote: 7-1 over. Verdict: Correct, although even the "over" voters were generally in the 85-90 range. Nobody expected 98-64.

.5 playoff games

Result: Over. Vote: 6-2 under. Verdict: Incorrect. Again, we thought they'd be decent, but not great.

.500 winning % vs. Phillies

Result: Push. Maybe next year.

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