Three Washington Nationals' Prospects On Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 Prospects List.
The Washington Nationals landed four players on MLB.com's List of the Top 100 Prospects in baseball for 2012 with OF Bryce Harper (no.2), 3B Anthony Rendon (no.27), right-hander Alex Meyer (no.83) and LHP Sammy Solis (no.86) all representing the Nats' organization. Harper (no.2), the Nats' 2010 no.1 overall pick and Anthony Rendon (no.17), the Nats' first 1st Round pick in 2011, were the only two Nationals' prospects to make ESPN.com's Keith Law's Top 100. Baseball Prospectus' writer Kevin Goldstein's List of the Top 101 Prospects in baseball was released last night. Harper, (no.2), finished behind only Rays' LHP Matt Moore as the top position player on Mr. Goldstein's prospect list as he did on MLB.com's Top 100. Harper was behind LAA's OF Mike Trout on ESPN.com's Keith Law's list, with Moore 3rd. The Nats' top prospect is joined on Baseball Prospectus' list by Rendon (no.26) and 2011 3rd Round pick Matt Purke (no.91).
Matt Purke is, of course, the 21-year-old, 6'4'', left-hander drafted out of TCU 93rd overall last June by the Nats, who was a Texas Rangers' 1st Round pick (14th overall) in 2009, but failed to sign. Purke instead attended college where he went (16-0) as a freshman with the Horned Frogs, striking out 142 K's (10.99 K/9) and walking 34 (2.63 BB/9) in 20 starts and 116.1 IP in 2010 before an injury-shortened 2011 campaign in which he was (5-1) with a 1.71 ERA, a .187 BAA, 20 walks (3.42 BB/9) and 61 K's (10.42 K/9) in 11 starts and 52.2 IP.
The left-hander, described by D.C. GM Mike Rizzo last summer as a "quick-to-the-big-leagues college-type of pitcher," was the top-ranked lefty in the Nats' system on Baseball America's updated list of the top prospects in Washington's organization. ESPN.com's Keith Law had Purke 7th as the second-best left-hander in the Nats' organization behind 2010 2nd Round pick Sammy Solis, who was 4th overall with Purke 6th on MLB.com's Top prospects list for the Nationals. Purke satisfied the Nationals' concerns (as they explained when introducing the left-hander last summer) about the shoulder issues Purke dealt with in 2011 before they signed him last August.
The Nats were comfortable enough with the left-hander's left shoulder, after having their doctors perform an MRI arthrogram, that they gave the pitcher a well-above slot 4-year/$4.15 million dollar deal. "If he’s healthy, he’s worth it," MLB.com's scouts write in the report included on their 2012 Prospect watch, describing him as, "a southpaw with a plus fastball, a plus slider and a pretty good changeup," and, "If he’s the Purke of old, he’s a frontline starter in the making," in their opinion. Purke pitched in the Arizona Fall League, giving up three walks, 12 hits and 11 runs in seven games and 7.1 IP over which he struck out five batters.
2011 1st Round pick Anthony Rendon too battled shoulder and ankle issues during his Junior year at Rice which led to him falling to the Nationals at 6th overall when he was once considered a potential no.1 overall pick. The 21-year-old infielder's shoulder issues sapped his power in his draft year, but he finished the season with a .327/.520/.523 line, twenty doubles, six home runs and 27 RBI's in 63 games and 214 AB's a year after he'd put up a .394/.530/.801 slash with 26 HR's, 65 walks and just 22 K's in 63 games in 2010. The Nationals decided against sending Rendon to the AFL this year since he hadn't played since the previous May, but before he's played a professional game, the 6'0'', 190 lb right-handed hitting and throwing third baseman is the third-highest ranked third baseman in baseball on MLB.com's Top Prospects list, the top-rated 3B on ESPN.com's Keith Law's list and now the third-highest ranked 3B on Kevin Goldstein's list at Baseball Prospectus.
Rendon, Purke, Alex Meyer and outfielder Brian Goodwin, all of whom were 2011 Draft picks are ranked high on each of the Nats' organizational rankings since they traded away their three top pitching prospects and their top-rated catching prospect in the deal with the Oakland A's that brought Gio Gonzalez to Washington. Former Nationals' prospects RHP A.J Cole (no.60), Brad Peacock (no.64) and C Derek Norris (no.96) all made Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein's Top 101 list. The trade with the A's resulted in the Nationals falling from the top of the 2012 organizational rankings, from no.1 overall to the "5-10 range" (according to BA's Jim Callis via the Washington Times' Amanda Comak) and to 21st overall on ESPN.com's Mr. Law's organizational rankings.
The Nats' GM believes the Nationals have the talent in the organization and in the front office to continue producing the sort of talent that's currently filling up spots throughout 2012 top prospect rankings. Even after parting with three of their top pitching prospects this winter, the Nationals' general manager told reporters this winter, "We've got a wave of pitchers coming behind them and even a further wave beyond that," Rizzo said, "and I put the onus on [Assistant GM] Roy Clark and [Scouting Director] Kris Kline and Doug Harris our farm director to keep identifying, signing and developing good, young, power starting pitching." There won't be another haul like the 2011 Draft class again, Rizzo acknowledged, with the changes to the Draft in the new CBA, but strong seasons from the Nationals' top prospects could land them high on all the organizational rankings again when they're updated next winter.
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It's a bit depressing to see 3 former guys also on the list
Imagine if we had 6 players in the top 100! That would be quite impressive, though a decent season from Goodwin and Meyer will surely get them included next year.
I’m still skeptical of the Gio Gonzalez trade. I think we gave up way too much value for an only above average pitcher. I think Edwin Jackson is a decent comparison, and we could have easily had him for 5/$42m, without giving up a single prospect (much less the 60th, 64th, 96th best prospects and a big league ready LHP). It seems to me that Rizzo panicked after losing out on Buehrle and overestimated the market at the time (even though the Reds only gave up two top 100 prospects and a decent ML ready innings eater a few days before for Latos).
We could have gotten comparable output for the exact same dollar value by signing Jackson to a 4-5 year deal and Oswalt to one year, instead of dealing for Gonzalez and signing Jackson for a one year deal.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peacock and Milone put up the same WAR together as Gio does over the next year or two.
why do you think we could have had jackson at 5/42?
He turned down a 3/30-ish from the pirates. I think he wants a big payday after this year. Also, Gio has more potential than Jackson.
I’m with you that we gave up more value than Gio in order to get him. But I still like the trade. Considering where the franchise, and more specifically, the rotation is right now, locking down a SP sure-ish thing for 5-7 cheap years is worth giving up the SP prospects.
I agree, Will.
Though I have turned away from my doomsday, the-sky-is-falling reaction to the trade, I do think we overpaid here. I think 3 top prospects should have been enough since most were so close to the MLB. It would have been different if these were guys in the low minors, but all of them could be on the 2013 Oakland roster. I think I may dislike this more than most, because I think Milone will be a highly-effective MLB pitcher.
Gio will probably be a great pitcher for the Nationals, but I think they gave up too much to get him.
#extendZim
With the exception of AJ Cole
Gio has a higher ceiling than all of them except AJ Cole (who is still in A ball). I think it was alot to give up, but its hard to find lefties who throw hard and k alot of guys. His walks are the main issue of concern. We can only wait to see how bad they become. But in reality waiting for Cole to be ready a few years down the road doesn’t match up with the roadmap the Nats are looking at.
The scary comparable would be Oliver Perez, but Perez never looked like he was in control of his emotions or his pitch count. Gio at least looks like he has an idea of what he is doing.
But as of now, the Nats need to be building their roster in timely manner that matches with the deterioration of the Phillies roster. The Phils will be getting old just in time for their surge.
And if two pitchers combine for the same WAR, thats less value. You have to assume in your analysis that Gio also has a second pitcher because Milone and Peacock would have to fill two SP roles. So will Peacock and Milone equal the WAR of Gio and whoever fills our 5 Sp role? No, probably not.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
I agree…..Cole was the real loss in this trade. It’s kinda like paying 30K for a new car when you didn’t want to exceed 29,999. The A’s win overall with this trade, but I don’t think we will regret it in the end….at least not like the Expos fans regretted that Bartolo Colon trade several years ago. Now, since I said that, watch Peacock and Milone combine to win 5 of the next 7 Cy Young awards! lol
lol
just made me depressed.
i bet Peacock has the best career out of all of these guys. though milone could be decent. much like a Lannan.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
way harder to get a 2 or 3 starter then a 4 or 5
so you gotta pay. he is in his prime (25 – 29) and as another said, Jackson would only go long term for a lot more money. 3 of the prospects have far lower ceilings and the other is a crapshoot at this point. Now is the nats time, so making a move was the right thing right now.
by William.Hatheway on Feb 14, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Don't worry
I hear that Peacock’s stuff was looking very flat towards the end of the year and while he may put up decent to good numbers in Oakland, they will be park inflated. The moment he leaves he’ll turn in to Barry Zito.
Now teaming with RobBobS to form the most snarky and immature tandem in the blogosphere.
TINSTAAPP
The Nats gave up two pitching prospects to get a proven middle to front of the rotation starter along with a catcher who dropped significantly on these lists. Essentially they traded two guys who could be good middle to back of the rotation starters and a guy who could be an above average catcher for someone who is a front of the rotation starter. At season’s end, I think you’ll be glad they made this deal.
Now teaming with RobBobS to form the most snarky and immature tandem in the blogosphere.
by Pig.Pen on Feb 14, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fixed
The Nats gave up three pitching prospects (Peacock, Milone, Cole), along with a catching prospect (Norris). Having said that, I agree with you. The Nats got a young veteran #2 starter in exchange for a potential #2 (Cole), a potential back-end starter/middle reliever (Peacock, depending on whose forecasts you believe), and a potential #5 starter/middle reliever (Milone), plus a catching prospect with some questions about his defense and batting average. It’s a steep price, but one that hopefully will benefit both sides.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Shrug
I don’t see Milone as being much better than other ‘crafty lefties’. He may be Tom Glavine, but I doubt it.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
by RobBobS on Feb 14, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
prospects vs. established veteran
Milone and Peacock are marginal MLB starters. Peacock only has two reliable pitches and many think he’s suited more for the bullpen. Norris, while having the plate discipline of a minor god, still does not make enough contact. Cole is projectable, but we won’t know what he is for three years really.
That said, it’s a lot to give up for a pitcher that walks more than four per nine innings.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 14, 2012 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think the bullpen projections were mostly when Peacock was having control problems.
As he has mostly resolved those, he is basically a change-up away from being a solid number 3 with low to mid-90s heat and a plus curve.
#extendZim
That you can only see his stereotype is a pretty good indication you are undervaluing him.
#extendZim
I'm "undervaluing" him
based on seeing him pitch. That’s all.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Agree with Rob
I don’t see this as anything extreme one way or the other… surely not enough to charge someone with seeing something one way only because they are stereotyping
by William.Hatheway on Feb 15, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
4 for 1
Sure the chances are we might get the short end of the stick. .Some times you have to roll the dice. Only Peacock was going to have an effect on the 2012 team…….. Milone will have to work hard just to achieve what Lannen (a guy were now trying to get rid of) has done…….Cole is three years away……….. and the “money ball” Catcher is blocked by Ramos-A future allstar.
I’ll live with the trade. For now…….
The signing Jackson and Oswalt could have led to those four and Lannen being included in a Bigtime “McCutecheon” deal however……….
The Nats are one bad break away from getting nothing
The thing about the Ace for a buncha guys deal is that the Ace is just one guy. If he gets hurt or doesn’t live up to billing the Nats lose. The A’s get four chances to get their value out of this deal. And two of those pitchers could be throwing this year, and could equal Gio’s value by next season.
Norris’ plate discipline is ridiculous. I guess if there’s some question about his defense then he doesn’t look so awesome. But that’s a skill that translates to the bigs.
I just think the Nat shouldn’t have given up more than two of these players for an above-average-but-not-awesome pitcher who is about to start costing real money. I think they got took.
we have to see how this plays out
The guys we gave up may never make it or may not be as good as we like to think they are.
lets look at the deal after this season and see how it went
I like Purke, but I think they overrated him
I’m still concerned about his arm given his struggles this fall. That being said, I think he still has tremendous upside, but he hasn’t done anything to remove any doubt, in fact he’s added to it.
I actually think Rendon is a bit of a sleeper at no. 26 (or as much of a sleeper as you can be at 26). Without the injury history, he’s probably top 5 and definitely top 10. Even if he never fully recovers I think he has the bat to stick at 1B.
Now teaming with RobBobS to form the most snarky and immature tandem in the blogosphere.
Rendon was the sixth overall pick, not 26th
many thought we would be the No.1 overall. probably won’t develop “first base” power, but a mid-20s homer guy who on-bases >.340 is a valuable bat, whether he plays third, second or left field. but yeah, hopefully he’s past his shoulder woes that limited to DH duty in college.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 14, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
unless you meant 26th ranked prospect
in which case i rescind the top part of my comment.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Feb 14, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
where did all the 1B talk for Rendon come from?
Is it based on the notion that the shoulder will limit his ability to throw? I agree that his bat is not really what you want at 1B
Yes it comes from the shoulder worries.
We really have no idea what his bat will be like, but he raked in college against high level competition. That plays at any position, even if the power is a little low for a 1b, he can make up for it with contact and just a ton of hard hit balls. Watch some tape of the guy, he is a hitting machine.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Now that Cole is gone, my man crush must be moved somewhere else.
Right now, it’s at Purke. I follow him on twitter and he seems like a great guy with a great attitude. I hope he actually is 100% and he shows off his talent in the minors this season.
By the end of this season, Rendon will be our best prospect(assuming Harper comes up before september), and I hope Purke can prove to be a solid second.
Skins rule
I like Purke
But I’m worried about his health, if you’re looking for the long-term man-crush might I suggest Brian Goodwin? He’s 3-4 years away, but what a pretty swing for a high schooler, his hands are perfect throughout and he does a good job of squaring the ball up. I think he may have been a bigger steal in the draft than Purke, but not the steal that Rendon was/is.
Did someone order snark and immaturity?
in all the video i see if goodwin he either k's or weakly grounds out...
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Yeah, that scouting tape on the double-header against UVA is NOT flattering.
Actually, I must say it seems to me his hands and thus his bat are too “noisy” prior to the swing – my guess is he’ll calm that down a bit through coaching and necessity (as pitches start coming to the plate a lot faster!).
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
agree with all above.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
heh. I thought that was Perez
I was dumfounded to see that (according to the MLB.com list) he had only 12 XBH in 424 AB at Potomac. Translate those to MLB, and you make Juan Pierre look like Pujols at the plate …
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Around signing day, were there reports that the Nats gave him a good physical and checked the integrity of the shoulder?
I can’t remember.
The Nats certainly rolled the dice with injury risk this past draft.
let’s hope it pays off.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
I'm a Seattle fan and I think it's a bad sign the M's passed
Third base is an extremely weak position organizationally. I honestly feel as though the M’s would have taken him unless there was some very troubling evidence that his injury would hurt his ability long term. That the M’s took a pitcher instead shows how much they doubted his health. And four other teams passed on the guy as well. This tells me something in his medical records was not entirely encouraging.
Now I don’t hate that the Nationals took him. They can afford to make a bad pick at third base with Zimmerman at that position for few more years. And the upside if Rendon turns out ok is huge. The M’s just really couldn’t take a risk with this pick…they needed to get value with the number three pick given how crappy they’ve been. And Hultzen may pitch this season. He’s a good pick. But clearly a lot of teams felt there was significant risk in taking Rendon based on his health.
I disagree actually
Rendon is not a huge guy, and maybe they figured his 20 Hr power doesn’t translate to safeco. Or they just had Hultzen ranked higher.
In terms of risk the Nats clearly are more willing to take it on than other teams, Seattle focused on the surest prospect in the draft.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Rendon, Bundy, Bauer & Starling would be better picks.
Starling may not have signed, but the M’s should have done better than Hultzen. They should have drafted Rendon if they thought he was healthy, but if not, then at least draft Bundy. All of then are better prospects than Hultzen, and Rendon & Bundy are elite prospects.
Skins rule

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