Stupidly Early Projections for 2012 Playoffs

by Jorgath on Feb 3, 2012 4:38 PM EST

Yes, I know it's early, but we're only a couple of weeks from spring training, and MOST of the pre-season wheeling and dealing is through. So I feel it's time for me to post my eyeball-based projections for which teams will make the playoffs. I'm NOT going to predict how the playoffs go from there, though.

I'm assuming a two Wild Card format, but if it is a one WC format, the second Wild Card team is (obviously) just first loser. I'm also going to post percentage guesstimates about how confident I am about each playoff berth's winner.

AL East Winner: New York Yankees, 90%, Tampa Bay Rays 8%, Other 2%

AL Central Winner: Detroit Tigers 92%, Cleveland Indians 3%, Other 5%

AL West Winner: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 51%, Texas Rangers 48%, Other 1%

AL Wild Card #1 Winner: Tampa Bay Rays 62%, Los Angeles Angels 14%, Texas Rangers 15%, New York Yankees 3%, Other 1%

AL Wild Card #2 Winner: Texas Rangers 32%, Los Angeles Angels 30%, Tampa Bay Rays 25%, New York Yankees 5%, Other 8%

NL East Winner: Philadelphia Phillies 95%, Other 5%

NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals 53%, Milwaukee Brewers 46%, Other 1%

NL West Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks 95%, Other 5%

NL Wild Card # 1 Winner: Atlanta Braves 75%, St. Louis Cardinals 10%, Milwaukee Brewers 10%, Other 5%

NL Wild Card # 2 Winner: St Louis Cardinals 25%, Milwaukee Brewers 25%, Atlanta Braves 15%, Washington Nationals 15%, Miami Marlins 15%, Other 5%

Thoughts?

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My first thought is that some of the probability values are way too high

for the division winner projections. 90%+ certainty for four of the divisions reflects too much certainty in this context IMHO. And the Nationals chances of being a 2nd wild card team is considerably better than 15%. As for the teams projected as playoff bound I find no fault at this time.

by wreckhouse on Feb 3, 2012 5:43 PM EST reply actions

Phillies 95% chance to win the division?

That’s crazy-high.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Feb 3, 2012 5:59 PM EST reply actions

I think so too.

As good as they are, teams who are that good end up second or worse more than 5% of the time.

I'm throwin' rocks tonight! Mark it, Dude.

by Pardon_My_French on Feb 4, 2012 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

A few thoughts

1. I think the NL West is considerably more open. The Giants have added offense this offseason, Posey will be back, and they haven’t lost anyone.

2. The Reds have a shot in the NL Central.

3. The Red Sox aren’t mentioned at all. Despite thier collapse last year, they are very good team and should be in contention.

#extendZim

by chubias on Feb 3, 2012 6:01 PM EST reply actions

Completely agree on the Red Sox

They are going to score a ton of runs – Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, A-Gon, Crawford make one heck of a starting point for any lineup. They scored more runs than anyone else last year, and that was with a lot of injuries and Crawford stinking out the joint. It’s quite possible that their offense will be better this year, and that’s a scary though. Although they have no depth in the rotation, they do start it off with Lester, Beckett and Buchholz. If they stay healthy and even just one of the Silva/Bard/Aceves group steps up, they are going to win 90+ games – possibly a lot more.

by d_c_guy on Feb 3, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

The probabilities are WAY too high for many of the divisions

90 percent for the Yankees to win the AL East is too high.
92 percent for the Tigers to win the AL Central is too high, but closer than the 90 percent for the Yanks.
95 percent for the Phillies to win the NL east is insanely too high.
46 percent for the Brewers to win the NL central is way too high. They lost Fielder and will be without their best player for 50 games.
95 percent for the D-Backs is way, way too high. That division is very wide open and I see AZ taking a step back this year.

by aholla30 on Feb 3, 2012 6:59 PM EST reply actions

I do not understand all the Cardinal love....

Others must be seeing something that I am clearly missing.

by sullyzz on Feb 3, 2012 7:29 PM EST reply actions

Extreme hope for Wainwright?

It seems a bit exaggerated, doesn’t it?

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Feb 3, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

Well, they just won a World Series without thier ace pitcher.

Obviously, they have lost a ton of ground with in Pujols, but they are still a decent team and the NL Central is still a weak division.

#extendZim

by chubias on Feb 3, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

I think the Reds should have the inside track

They got a lot better, and the Cards got a lot worse, Wainwright notwithstanding.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Feb 3, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

I agree, but the Reds have a lot of ground to cover.

#extendZim

by chubias on Feb 3, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

And they did dump Larussa, so there's that

OK, he retired … but still!

by d_c_guy on Feb 3, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

Bucco’s are a darkhorse! Just wishful thinking from a casual Pirates fan.

by RossingtonCollins on Feb 4, 2012 3:49 PM EST reply actions

IF there is ever a year for the Pirates, this is it

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Feb 5, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

Odds that there will ever be a year?

Sorry, just been the butt of many jokes as a Nats fan!

by William.Hatheway on Feb 5, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

If the Pirates can fix the rotation with Cole, Allie, and Tallion, they will be in good shape.

However, I think that you’ll have to deal McCutchen before those pitchers are up, but perhaps they will find the money for a long-term contract.

#extendZim

by chubias on Feb 6, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Are all of those MILBers?

If so, I would imagine a 100% rate with all of them is unlikely… don’t get me wrong, I’m pulling for them. Sadly, they along with us are going to be hurt by the new CBA and the whole over-slotting strategy, but maybe it will pay off for them since they played it pretty hard the last few years before it was scrapped.

by William.Hatheway on Feb 6, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

with all of them succeeding at a high level is what I meant, btw

by William.Hatheway on Feb 6, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

That rotation is about 2-3 years out, and I honestly hope they don’t deal McCutchen unless they get a great return.

by RossingtonCollins on Feb 6, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

I like how the Tigers have a 92% chance of winning the division

But an under 1% chance of taking the first wildcard.

Also, others have said it, but…Red Sox?

by mk7676 on Feb 4, 2012 7:05 PM EST reply actions

The Phillies are going into this year...

…overrated. Howard might not be right all season, and Rollins/Utley/Victorino are all a year older. They have great starting pitching…and then a ton of question marks. I’m going out on a limb and picking the Nats to win the division. I think the rotation is second only to the Phils in the National League, and the lineup is far better than Philly’s. As for the Cardinals, consider that in addition to Wainwright, their bullpen and middle infield are much improved from the first half of last season. The Reds look good, but the Cards are the team to beat. The Brewers will bust in 2012.

by sabertooth5185 on Feb 9, 2012 8:58 PM EST reply actions