Potential CF trade targets

I doubt that the Nationals really have enough to grab an established CF though, which is why most of these guys have less than a year of service time or none at all. I’m hoping that we can strike it rich like the Padres did when they picked up Maybin for a pair of relievers.

What kind of trades do you see as workable?

Lannan has been sub-4 era for 3/4 years, and the year he wasn’t he was playing hurt. FIP and related numbers are useful because they predict future era better than current era for pitchers in general. At a certain point, a pitcher can prove himself to be an outlier.

I think one of the reasons why he won’t haul a top CF 1-1 is because 1) he’s still not a top SP, so why would he? and 2) a lot of teams are already pretty set in their rotation. It’s kinda late in the offseason to start shopping someone. His trade value will probably increase as the season goes on and injuries/other problems start arising in competing teams. But he won’t have any value if he’s pitching out of the pen…so unless you send Wang there, he kinda needs to go now.

I do disagree with your points though.

1. The Diamondbacks were reportedly interested in offering 2 years, $12 million before the Cahill trade. This isn’t out of line with what Lannan will probably make. The next thing is that while Saunders had a similar 2011 to Lannan. He had not previously been that pitcher, making regression more likely. As far as why Lannan, out performed his peripherals, I believe that there was some discussion of his plus ability to induce double plays, which would explain why he can walk so many yet have a low ERA and average LOB.

2. I strongly disagree here. Though I think we need a better 4th OF and bench bat. I don’t think that we should trade Lannan for that. I think that we should be looking to catch lighting in a bottle here. I agree that Lannan isn’t going to bring a 5 tool CF. We don’t need that though. We need a 3 tool CF. I would prefer to trade Lannan for a Logan Schafer, Blake Tekkote, then sign Kosuke Fukudome. If the prospects fail, then we cleared the salary to sign the 4th OF. But if they are a 2-3 win player we are gold. Actually, NL east rivals sport two others Bryan Petersen and Jose Constanza.

To further expand on this point, I would refer you to the Matt Latos trade. John Lannan is not Latos in anyway. Part of the reason the Reds gave up so much to get Latos, was because they had it to spare. Yoder Alonso was blocked by Votto, and Grandel was blocked by Mescaro. Look at how little the Padres got for Anthony Rizzo. It doesn’t mean the prospect is worthless, but it does mean the prospect is worth less than he would have been. Similarly, the Brewers have 5 OFs in the majors ahead of Logan Schafer, who might be a nobody or something like Shane Victorino. Tekotte is a little more difficult to explain as I don’t see the Padres wanting Lannan.

Lannan isn’t a great trade candidate. It’s not Lannan hate. I think he works just fine for us, and I’d love to keep him in our rotation… but he’s not going to bring back a whole lot in a trade. I think Detwiler is the guy who ends up moving if we upgrade the OF through a trade. His profile is much closer to what a non-contender or small market team trades for (major league ready, cheap, under control). I think a contender would want to see him looking sharp in March and April, but he could be out the door by then.

Another point is that I’m not sure we’re looking for a CF of the future. I’d like to think that Brian Goodwin (or Eury Perez — but I don’t think he has as much upside) could be our opening day starter in 2014. He could be a complete bust, but the potential is there. We should be prioritizing guys who can step in immediately over guys who we can control for a long time. I like the idea of signing Kosuke Fukudome (I think someone suggested it below). I’m not sure if he can still handle CF every day, but Werth should be able to spell him. As far as trade candidates, Chris Young would be a perfect fit. I don’t know if he’s available, but Arizona has a major league ready prospect behind him.

An AZ fan blog posted some speculation last summer: http://www.azsnakepit.com/2011/8/15/2358313/off-season-trade-candidate-chris-young

Adam Jones is a career .319 OBP who did poorly in the field last year. He’s still not awful as a CF, but he’s not that good, either. John Lannan AND Detwiler? What happens if Wang isn’t good, then you have no one once Strasberg goes down since Gorzelanny had to take his spot. Lannan and Lombardozzi AND a prospect is equally as laughable.

Wow…none of the posters at that article would make those trades. One said he would only do it for Rendon and Purke. One said throw in Zimmermann, then maybe.

Am I missing something? It really seems like the O’s fans are overvaluing a decent-ish player.

Adam Jones is a good player. He bring power at a premium defensive position. However, the Nationals actually have a fair amount of power. Even though the Nationals are slightly below average at 1b (assuming LaRoche) and slightly down at RF for power. Espinosa and Ramos provided extra power at two defensive positions and we should be looking for more toward OBP than HR for the moment. Additionally, he is not a great defender and I don’t think anyone would be clamoring for him if he played LF or RF, which is probably where he should be.

The rockies OFs include a solid starting 3 of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Michael Cuddyer. Backups include Tyler Colvin, Eric Young, Jr., and Charlie Blackmon. They have Tim Wheeler, who should be up to the MLB some time this year have crushing AA last year. I think that there are plenty of reasons for the Rockies to view Blackmon as a surplus player, who could be traded for the right piece. The NL West is a strange place, and I could see the Rockies contending this year if they can get a passable rotation to go with their solid offense.

I think I’ve got to say no. How could they possibly? We’d have to throw someone else in… I don’t know what they need. lombo? even that seems weak. So I am just not sure what they would want.

Angels will be in need of OFs next year when Hunter and Abreu are gone. The Angels do have some surplus to trade from though.

But the Red Sox not having an OF to send back, which could make option 1 more plausible.

The really suprising thing about that signing was the Brewers didn’t need OF support. You would think that the Nationals would have been in the market for a hit for average CF.

They are both the all speed, no power CF, judging from the stats. Except for the part where the Blue Jays forgot that Mastroianni exsisted and left him in AA for 3 years despite posting a wRC+ of 119 in 2009 and 128 in 2010. The best part is that Mastroianni is basically free since the Blue Jays gave him a DFA a couple days ago.

However, we do have 7 good options for SPs, and 3 not so good spot start options (Gorz, Stammen, Maya). There is very little in AAA, basically only Arnsen. Maybe Brad Meyers if the Yankees return him. So, the real consideration you need to make is whether the difference in Lannan and say Stammen is greater than the difference between Harper (though Werth would likely be in CF) and a potential CF. You may be right that the answer is no. But I think there are a number of reasons to believe that the answer would be yes.

First off, the salary relief could be used to sign Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon to be a bench bat that pinch hits for the pitcher once a game.

Second, assuming we found a rookie that could meet our needs, we would no longer need to sign an expensive/aging free agent CFs. That money can be redirected to extending our other core players.

Third, keeping Werth out of center field should be a goal for the Nationals. They will need Werth to be a productive OF at 35, so anything they can do to reduce injury risk is a positive.