Ever ask yourself: Just how much HAS Desmond's supposed defense supposedly improved? Can a team that has made essentially no changes to their roster hope to score more runs? Just how wild IS Henry Rodriguez??
These questions are burning in MY mind, too!
Hello and welcome to the new, improved, and upgraded 2012 Guess-Em contest! Picking and prognosticating are fun, but they're even MORE fun if held within the context of a "contest", and even more so when winning could get you millions of dollars in cash and prizes!
We are not offering millions of dollars in cash and prizes.
Here's the basics: First, guess the answers to the following questions:
- How many errors will Ian Desmond commit as a shortstop before the All Star Break?
- How many runs will the Nationals' offense score before the All Star Break?
- How many walks, wild pitches, and hit batsmen will Henry Rodriguez give up before the All Star Break?
And, as a special bonus,
- On what day will Bryce Harper be first PROMOTED to the Major Leagues, if you believe he'll be up before the end of the All Star Break?
Indicate your answers to these questions here, as comments to this post, BEFORE 12:01 am, Monday, April 9th (essentially, submit them before the end of Easter Weekend). Try to come as close as possible to the actual answers, either above or below. If you believe Harper will not be up before the end of the All Star Break, indicate "After July 12".
For each question, I will calculate the ABSOLUTE error from your guesses to the actual figures, and will rank each contestant by their accuracy (compared with the other contestants). The SUM of the ranks for the three main questions determines the overall ranking in the contest.
The closeness of the answer for the bonus question will be used as a tie-breaker.
Now, the best part! The TOP THREE contestants in this year's Guess-Em contest will receive authentic, actually-valuable "Nats Bucks", good for concessions or merchandise at Nats Park throughout the 2012 season (hence the reason the contest ends at the All Star Break). The #1 winner will receive 50 Nats Bucks, and the second and third place winners will each receive 25 Nats Bucks. Such a Deal!
So, why am I setting this up? For fun, of course. I got those Nats Bucks as an unexpected part of my season ticket package, and after some consideration I've decided that I don't really have much use for them. Having a contest will be much more interesting.
As in the original Guess-Em Contest, I will submit an entry, but won't be officially participating. In fact, here it is:
Desmond Errors ("Desmonds"): 11
Nats' Runs ("Offenzas"): 340
Henry Rodriguez's BB+WP+HBP ("Wild Things"): 32
Harper Call-up Date: May 18
Some technical considerations:
- Ranking is done differently from the original contest due to the expected substantial difference in magnitudes in, say, the number of errors Desmond commits and the number of runs the Nats will score. (At least, I sure as heck hope there's a substantial difference.) This ensures that accuracy in Question 2 doesn't have more importance than accuracy for the other two questions.
- For ties in rankings, I take the average rank of the tied players had they not been tied. E.g. if three players are tied for 5th in accuracy of picking Offenzas, each player will be given a rank of "6" for that category.
- Statistics are accumulated only for games completed before the All Star break. Rain-outs and suspended games resumed after the break are not considered.
- I will periodically post updated projected standings for the contest in a separate fan post.
- One entry per player. But you knew that.
- No purchase necessary. I'm not selling anything anyway.
- All decisions I make are final, cause, uh... this is supposed to be all in fun.
So, get your thinkin' caps on, and submit that entry!