UPDATE:

5-4 wins it

4-5 guarantees tie

0-9 beats 4-5, ties 5-4, loses to 6-3

ORIGINAL POST:

Anything can happen.

But here is what Atlanta would have to do to catch or pass the Nats.

This breakdown shows how the Braves could play and end up one game behind the Nationals in the division. Add one Braves win for a tie scenario and two Braves wins for a Braves-win scenario.

0-12 wins the division if the Braves finish 4-7

1-11 wins the division if the Braves finish 5-6

2-10 wins the division if the Braves finish 6-5

3-9 wins the division if the Braves finish 7-4

4-8 wins the division if the Braves finish 8-3

5-7 wins the division if the Braves finish 9-2

6-6 wins the division if the Braves finish 10-1

7-5 wins the division even if the Braves win every remaining game

7-5 is a lower winning percentage (.583) than the Nats have on the season (.607)

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If the Nationals finish 6-6, Atlanta would have to go 11-0 just to tie. So mere .500 ball for the last dozen games will guarantee at least a one game playoff no matter how well Atlanta plays.

So, 7-5 would guarantee the division. That is a winning percentage (.583) below the Nats current mark (.607)

What about worst-case scenarios?

If the Nationals don't win another game--a massive 12-game losing streak--Atlanta would still need to win about half their remaining games (5-6) to tie, and 6-5 to win the division outright.

So, just one more win for the Nationals would force the Braves to play better than .500 to catch up.

Even just winning one out of three, a 4-8 finish, would force the Braves to go 9-2 to tie the Nats and 10-1 to win the division outright. Even an 8-3 mark from the Braves would give the Nats the division in this instance.