FanPost

(e)ERA 2012 - Fixing the Inherited Earned Run Problem

eERA and the 2012 Nationals Pitching Staff

Last offseason I put together a fanpost based on an idea I had to adjust pitchers' ERAs using Retrosheet run probability percentiles. The way this works is like this: If Ross Detwiler leaves the game with two outs and a runner on 2nd and Tyler Clippard relieves him and lets that runner score, then instead of the whole earned run being credited to Detwiler it is split up with only .227 of a run being credited to Detwiler (that's the chance a runner on 2nd with two outs has of scoring) while Clippard gets the rest of the run (.773 ER). I named the adjusted statistic "earned Earned Run Average" and here I now give the same treatment to the 2012 Nationals pitching staff.

Name

IP

ER

ERA

Run Diff

eERA

% diff

IS

IS%

Gio Gonzalez

199.1

64

2.89

-2.31

2.79

-3.60%

Stephen Strasburg

159.1

56

3.17

-0.94

3.11

-1.68%

Jordan Zimmermann

195.2

64

2.95

-2.30

2.84

-3.60%

Edwin Jackson

189.2

85

4.04

-1.37

3.97

-1.61%

Ross Detwiler

164.1

62

3.40

-3.92

3.18

-6.33%

Sean Burnett

56.2

15

2.40

3.63

2.96

24.18%

12

41%

Tyler Clippard

72.2

30

3.74

0.17

3.74

0.58%

2

22%

Craig Stammen

88.1

23

2.35

3.22

2.67

14.01%

5

19%

Drew Storen

30.1

8

2.39

-1.42

1.95

-17.74%

2

17%

John Lannan

32.2

15

4.19

-1.72

3.66

-11.45%

Michael Gonzalez

35.2

12

3.07

2.81

3.74

23.45%

7

21%

Tom Gorzelanny

72.0

23

2.88

2.11

3.14

9.18%

4

31%

Zach Duke

13.2

2

1.36

0.00

1.32

0.00%

0

Christian Garcia

12.2

3

2.21

0.00

2.13

0.00%

0

Ryan Perry

8.0

9

10.13

-1.54

8.39

-17.16%

0

Ryan Mattheus

66.1

21

2.86

1.75

3.09

8.35%

7

23%

Brad Lidge

9.1

10

9.89

-0.32

9.34

-3.18%

1

100%

Henry Rodriguez

29.1

19

5.88

-1.69

5.31

-8.87%

0

Chien-Ming Wang

32.1

24

6.73

3.82

7.74

15.91%

6

86%

The 2012 Doug Slaten Award goes to fellow lefty Sean Burnett, who was himself a runner up last year. Burnett led the team with the number of inherited runners he allowed to score. His adjusted ERA is twenty-four percent higher than the original. While even his adjusted eERA is still below 3.00, this is obviously not valuable trait in a relief pitcher and may have affected how hard the Nationals worked to retain his services.

In 2nd place with an eERA that is 23% higher than his ERA is another lefty, Michael Gonzalez, who like Burnett will not be with the team in 2013.

In positive trends, Drew Storen once again sported a low eERA. In 2012, he over-performed his ERA by over seventeen percent with an adjusted eERA of just 1.95.

The Nats pitching staff was much more stable this year than in 2011, using five fewer pitchers. Only four Nats pitchers sported an eERA over 4.00, and those four pitchers only combined for 79 innings (5% of total innings thrown).

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