Prior to the 2012 season, I wrote a FanPost that proposed multiple over-under "bets" to make on Nationals players, and the team as a whole. I skipped the exercise in 2013, but have decided to do another one for 2014. (Maybe it was good luck.) The Federal Baseball community did pretty well last time, as recapped here. The 2012 recap only reviewed the projections of the community as a whole; this time I plan to review each submission at the end of the season. Maybe we can come up with some sort of "prize" for the winner.
I also want to collaborate on the lines that get set this time, which explains why I am publishing this post in November--obviously, come opening day, not all of these will be relevant.
In 2012, no individual player appeared more than once, and neither did any statistic appear more than once. Except for innings pitched showing up twice, the same holds true for the preliminary 2014 lines, and I'd like to keep it that way.
Please don't make premature over and under statements now, but instead let me know what you would change below (short of the inevitable changes due to roster fluctuation). Changes should fall into three categories:
- Pick a different stat (while proposing a line)
- Keep the stat, change the line (I'm hoping most, perhaps 4 out of every 5, of the proposed changes fall into this category)
- Add a player and proposed line (but do not add a second line for a player who already has one)
I'm not dead-set on keeping any of the lines below, although I am fond of the one for Ramos.
So here is what I have so far (explanations and notes in parentheses):
Gio Gonzalez - Jordan Zimmermann's 2014 ERA
Jordan Zimmermann - Gio Gonzalez's 2014 strikeouts (too optimistic?)
Stephen Strasburg - 200 innings pitched
Ross Detwiler - 100 innings pitched (I don't really know where to set this)
Entire staff - 2.5 pitchers with 1+ saves (or this, but I like the idea)
Rafael Soriano - 6 blown saves aka "none-tucks" (same as 2013)
Ian Desmond - 45 combined HR/SB (had 46 in 2012 and 41 in 2013)
Danny Espinosa - 30 games played with Washington
Bryce Harper - 34 home runs (same as Giancarlo Stanton's age-21 season)
Adam LaRoche - __ IRBSGTC (Induced RobBobS GameThread Comments--someone would have to track this. And I don't know where to set this line at. I would not count comments posted in reply to other comments about LaRoche.)
Wilson Ramos - 0.5 stolen bases (!)
Anthony Rendon - .355 OBP (career .408 in Minors, and .329 with Nats in 2013)
Denard Span - 45 extra-base hits (had 46 in 2012 and 43 in 2013)
Chad Tracy - 122 days on Nationals 40-man roster, starting April 4 (122 days later is July 31)
Jayson Werth - .295 batting average (this is the sum of 50% of his 2013 average, 30% of his 2012 average, and 20% of his 2011 average)
Ryan Zimmerman - 0.5 games started at 1st base (yes, I'm going there)
Matt Williams 3 ejections
1st and a half place in the NL East (probably non-negotiable as the line)
89.5 regular season wins (98 in 2012 and 86 in 2013)
1.5 playoff games (Over means they either win the division or the WC game; under means they either lose the WC game or miss the playoffs)
.500 winning % vs. Braves (They were only 6-13 last year, while going no worse than 11-8 vs. anyone else in the division. Come on Nats!)