Let's start with the bad news.
According to two baseball sources, Ryan Zimmerman has a Grade 3 hamstring strain which means Zimmerman could be out a while. #Nats #MLB
— William Ladson (@washingnats) July 30, 2014
If you're waking up and hadn't seen this news yet, I'm sorry. If you thought that this was out of the realm of possibility, I don't know what to tell you. Ladson's story still doesn't mention a timetable, but it sounds like a worst case scenario. There have been two players that have suffered the same injury that I can find this season. One of them is (recently traded) prospect Addison Russell, who missed just over 9 weeks (64 days) due to the injury. The other is Marlins 2b/SS Rafael Furcal, who suffered the injury on June 21. He was transferred from the 15-day to the 60-day disabled list last week, and has yet to resume baseball activities five weeks after the injury.
So there's no timetable that the Nats have come up with, but if it is a Grade 3 Strain (as reported), we're probably looking at the better part of two months... optimistically. By that time, it would be late September. The minor league season would be long since over, which means that Zimmerman couldn't go through a traditional rehab process. He would pretty much have to join the roster in what figures to be a tight division race and try and find his timing at the big league level.
Given the uncertainty surrounding Zimmerman's injury apart from the "It's bad" that we had heard before tonight, it made sense (to me, at least... and some others at FBB) for the Nationals to try and improve their situation at 2b or 3b. Though they're not certainly available, the Nats have been tied to players like Adrian Beltre, Aaron Hill, and Martin Prado in trade rumors, so it's not like this is really news. The urgency of the situation only increases now that there's a little more clarity regarding Zimmerman's injury... even if it's not total clarity. We can hope that this isn't the case, but the Nats must operate as if Ryan Zimmerman isn't going to help them the rest of this season. This doesn't mean he absolutely won't help them this year... It means that anything they get from Ryan Zimmerman the rest of the way in 2014 is a bonus.
Does this mean that the Nats should hand the 2b duties off to Danny Espinosa, Zach Walters, or Kevin Frandsen (or some platooning combination of the three)? At present, those are the only real internal options that the Nationals have to fill that spot in the lineup. If this were May or June, the Nats would have time to further evaluate the situation. Unfortunately, it's not. The non-waiver trade deadline is 36 hours away.
You all probably know where I fall on this subject, so first I'm going to give some explanation as to why.
Win Curve/Marginal Value of a Win
The Win Curve is typically brought up more often during free agency season. In case you're not really familiar with the win curve, here's a link to a pretty nice article at Grantland which will go into a bit more detail. The theory behind the win curve should be self-explanatory. A win added to a team that is projected for 90 wins (the sweet spot is usually from 86-93 wins) is of far greater importance than it would be to a team that's projected for 70 wins. One additional win could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. Teams are likely to overpay a bit for a win if they're looking like they're going to be in that sweet spot on the win curve... and they should. This overpay typically happens with dollars in the offseason, but it also happens in terms of projected surplus value (typically of prospects) on the trade market.
Why would the sweet spot on the win curve matter? What does it bring? It brings a handful of expectations with it:
- In theory, 86-93 wins are going to put a team in contention for a playoff spot, though it's not such a lofty win total that it's a guaranteed spot. In the 86-93 win range, one win can make the difference between having a shot (making the playoffs) and sitting at home watching the games on TV in October.
- Teams that are in contention in September will typically see a boost in attendance. This puts more money in the owner's pockets (which they like) which will hopefully be reinvested in the team.
- Each postseason home game also boosts the cash flow which (again) will hopefully be reinvested in the team.
- Simply put, winning breeds excitement, which draws in more casual fans. Sometimes those fans stick around and boost the size of the fanbase. Having been a fan of this franchise since the early 1980s (back when they were in Montreal), I can safely say that the team's performance in 2012 was huge for the Nationals as a franchise. I don't live in DC, but I'm sure that many of you would back me up that there's been more excitement surrounding the Nationals these past few years than there was from 2005-2011.
As of July 30, the Nationals are right in that sweet spot. Both Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs current projections have the Nats to go 90-72. They both project the Nationals to win the division, but the projection is at 90 wins. One or two wins could make a very big difference over the next two months.
Mortgaging the Future?
There's some question as to what the Nationals would have to give up to acquire those one or two wins the rest of the year. Any of the targets I mention will almost certainly cost the Nationals one (or more) of their upper tier (not necessarily elite) prospects. Do I want the Nationals to give up their chances of possibly winning in 2016 for a shot at glory this season? Absolutely not. Do I think that focusing on 2014 when they know there's a shot at glory with two-thirds of the season done is more important than focusing on what could happen two years down the road? Absolutely!
We all want the Nationals to be a consistently successful team that is a threat to contend every season. Here's the thing. We know that the Nationals are contenders heading into August of 2014. We hope and expect that they will be contenders heading into 2016. Live in the present. The shot is there. Take it! Should Rizzo go all Ruben Amaro crazy trying to upgrade 2b or 3b? No.... Should he be focused on improving a situation where the club is currently starting a player who has been below replacement level the past two years (Espinosa)? Should he make sure that the fallback option isn't a rookie known as a poor defender playing out of position who has a .262/.304/.516 triple slash line in 887 career AAA Plate Appearances? Absolutely.
In terms of minor league players that I think the Nats should be willing to part with for any of these players, the only untouchables are Lucas Giolito and Michael Taylor. I would prefer that they didn't trade A.J. Cole, but I don't consider him untouchable. There are probably only two players on my list that I would consider trading Cole for. Some key names I might expect to see leave in a trade would be players such as Steven Souza, Brian Goodwin, Drew Ward, Blake Treinen, Drew Vettleson, Jake Johnasen, and Austin Voth. Obviously not all of them, but a combination of 2-3 of those prospects (again, depending upon the player) should make for a pretty competitive trade package. Are they Top 100 prospects? No.... None of the players below outside of maybe Beltre and Utley (who each have significant financial commitments owed to them) are likely to net their teams a Top 100 prospect from any team.
I think the name that most of you at FBB are in love with on that list is Steven Souza. I get it. We all dream on prospects. I like him an awful lot, and think his numbers in Syracuse are gaudy enough that he could headline a deal (read: Keep Cole out of it). The simple fact of the matter regarding Souza is that there may not be a starting spot for him on the big league club in the near future, and he's already 25. The Nationals are locked into a long-term commitment with Jayson Werth through 2017. Bryce Harper is under club control through 2018. Souza can handle CF, but he's better suited for a corner outfield spot. The Nats are likely to pick up Denard Span's option for 2015, after which Michael Taylor (23 and mashing AA) should be ready to replace him. Would Souza have value to the Nationals MLB club now and in the future? Absolutely. Would I be bitter if they cashed him in to fill a hole on the big league roster in 2014, when one win could make a huge difference? Certainly not.
Anyway, enough about who I'd give up and why I think they should trade....
Areas Of Need
- Improve the starting second baseman or third baseman. While salary is relevant, the ideal situation would be to obtain a player who is signed beyond this season. The Nationals would seem unlikely to exercise Adam LaRoche's $15 million option for 2015. The expectation is that Zimmerman would move to first base and that Anthony Rendon could slot in at either position. Given that Rendon is a natural 3b and has shown more aptitude for that position, my preference would be to acquire a 2b.
- An improvement to the bench. If we include Danny Espinosa (current starter) as one of the five Nationals bench bats, they've combined for -0.7 fWAR on the season. Espinosa (0.2) is the only one who hasn't provided negative value, and that's solely because of his glove. At this point, both Hairston and Frandsen are guys who should probably be designated for assignment. McLouth makes too much money to DFA... and also provides defensive value, which neither Hairston nor Frandsen do.
- The bullpen has been the hot topic surrounding the Nationals' interests at the deadline, but it seems far less important than improving the starting second baseman and the bench. At present, the Nationals are getting very little offensive production from second base and absolutely no offensive production from the bench. Improving the seventh man in the bullpen, who hasn't exactly been terrible (while some of you probably think they'd be upgrading Blevins, my belief is that they'd be optioning Aaron Barrett to the minors), takes a back seat.
The Wish List
I'll note that not all of these players are necessarily available. Some of them have been mentioned as players that their current teams don't intend to trade, but that isn't always the case. One of them has a full no-trade clause and says he doesn't want to leave his current team, but we've seen players have changes of heart before as well. I don't believe it's worthwhile for the Nats to give up anything of real value for a relief pitcher, so I'm bypassing the reliever need aside from mentioning a couple of complementary pieces.
Adrian Beltre (3b - TEX) - Age: 35 Bats: Right
- Contract Status: 2014 - $17M (~$6M remaining), 2015 - $18M, 2016 - $16M option that can be voided based on plate appearances
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .305/.350/.505, 1.6 fWAR Steamer - .314/.361/.512, 1.7 fWAR
- Potential Stumbling Block(s) - The Rangers have said they don't really intend to trade him, but they do have the worst record in baseball. They could be trying to improve their leverage.
Adrian Beltre is 35 years old and probably (assuming the option can't be voided) would cost the Nationals $40 million through 2016. That said, he's still probably one of the top five 3b in MLB. Since 2010, Beltre has triple-slashed .315/.359/.541. He's known for being an elite defender at the hot corner as well. While UZR indicates that his defense may finally be eroding a bit, it still rates his glove as average/above average at 3b over the past two seasons.
Of course, the Rangers are indicating that they have little to no desire to trade him, and the cost in prospects would likely be higher than any other player on this list. Give me my choice of any player who could/should be available based on their current team's projections on the win curve and Beltre's my choice. It's not going to happen, though.
Were the Nats to make an ultimate all-in move and acquire Beltre, I'm sure they could find a way to sneak veteran LHRP Neal Cotts into the deal.
Chase Utley (2b - PHI) - Age: 35 Bats: Left
- Contract Status: 2014 - $15M (~$5M remaining), 2015 - $10M (increases to $15M if he avoids the DL in 2014 with a knee injury, which he's done so far), 2016-2018 $15M vesting options that are guaranteed with 500 Plate Appearances in the previous season
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .273/.346/.440, 1.2 fWAR Steamer - .264/.338/.420, 1.4 fWAR
- Potential Stumbling Blocks - Phillies have indicated that they'd like to trade many of their higher paid players, most of whom figure to have far less trade value than the Phillies appear to believe. Utley has 10 & 5 rights, a full no-trade clause, and has indicated that he would like to remain in Philadelphia. Those option years are..... Well... The Phillies have a lot of confusing/awful contract options on their roster from what I can see. At the same time, the things that would make us ask questions about acquiring Utley (injury history... potential for age related decline) are things that could likely prevent him from getting 500 PA in a season at some point. The options vest from year to year after 2015.
- Contract Status: 2014 - $5.7M (~$2M remaining), 2015 - Final year of arbitration
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .287/.328/.408, 0.8 WAR Steamer - .281/.324/.404, 0.8 WAR
- Potential Stumbling Blocks: Murphy has indicated a willingness to sign a long-term extension with the Mets. If they're unable to get anything done, his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.
- Contract Status: 2014 - $11M (~$4M remaining), 2015-2016 - $12M
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .267/.316/.418, 0.6 WAR Steamer - .263/.316/.421, 0.7 WAR
- Potential Stumbling Blocks: That's an awfully bloated contract. This one's easily solved if the Diamondbacks are willing to kick in some money to improve their prospect haul.
- Contract Status: 2014 - $1.71M (~$600K remaining), 2015 - Year 2 Arbitration Eligible
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .242/.326/.389, 0.6 WAR Steamer - .238/.324/.379, 0.6 WAR
- Potential Stumbling Blocks: None
- Contract Status: 2014 - $10 M (~$3.4M remaining)
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .255/.315/.409, 0.8 WAR Steamer - .255/.315/.400, 0.5 WAR
- Potential Stumbling Blocks: None
- Contract Status: Reserve Clause, Year 1... Current level: AAA
- ROS Projections: ZiPS - .241/.313/.386, 0.5 WAR Steamer - .246/.316/.379, 0.1 WAR
- Stumbling Block: It would be a weird challenge trade, but it could be interesting