FanPost

Arbitration Eligibles: A Tender Subject?

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

At midnight on Wednesday night, the next offseason milestone comes up; Wednesday is the last day for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Arbitration eligible players that do not receive a contract by the deadline immediately become free agents. For the Nationals, there are eight players who are arbitration eligible. I have listed them below, along with their estimated contract values through arbitration as determined by MLBTR using their model to predict arbitration salaries. The question is; are any of these players non-tender candidates?

The Nationals have four players entering their third (and for all of these players, final) season of arbitration:

Craig Stammen ($2.4M)

Drew Storen ($8.8M)

Stephen Strasburg ($10.5M)

Wilson Ramos ($5.3M)

Two players are entering their second arbitration year:

Jose Lobaton ($1.5M)

Danny Espinosa ($2.7M)

And two players are becoming arbitration eligible for the first time:

Tyler Moore ($1.0M)

Anthony Rendon ($2.5M)

Note that salaries naturally increase as a player goes through his arbitration years and approaches free agency. MLBTR's full explanation of their methodology is here for those that are curious. This is why Craig Stammen's estimated salary is about the same as Anthony Rendon.

So, where does that leave the Nationals as they look to 2016? Well, two candidates (Strasburg, Rendon) are impact players that aren't going anywhere. Even if the Nationals are looking to move Storen, he's an asset with some value even at $8.8M; a non-tender means the Nationals leverage no value at all for him. Rizzo doesn't work that way; Storen will be tendered. The catchers (Ramos and Lobaton) both aren't terribly expensive and do not have obvious MLB-ready replacements, and so I expect both of them to be tendered as well. Lobaton is the obvious candidate for replacement, but ... I believe that a replacement backup catcher is likely to cost more than his $1.5M. Lobaton stays, and Severino gets to play every day in AAA.

That leaves three players: Espinosa; Stammen and Moore. Espinosa may well be a starter on this team in 2016, either at SS or 2b; as astonishing as we would have thought it at this time last year, there's little chance he is not tendered a contract.

Stammen and Moore are on the bubble. If Stammen is truly recovered from his injury then he's well worth $2.4M; his value has been held down by the fact that he was hurt last season and, even when healthy, hasn't piled up the "old school" stats like saves that have traditionally been rewarded in arbitration. Stammen's injury was a torn flexor tendon. Most of the places I've found (like this one) the chances of full recovery are good. Further, if anything, the Nationals' experience with the bullpen last year likely made them appreciate the importance of a pitcher like Stammen. If the medicals are there, Stammen should get tendered.

Leaving us with Tyler Moore. Moore would probably be better served by being non-tendered, because that would enable him to pick a team that would give him the best chance to play. For the Nats, he is a man without an obvious role - Clint Robinson has pretty much made the backup 1b/OF role his own, and also can offer the Nationals a LH bat. With Ryan Zimmerman a starter, the team doesn't really have room for three first basemen. Moore is also out of options. OTOH, Moore is still pretty much dirt cheap ($1.0M estimated contract). While I wouldn't be surprised if he's non-tendered, I expect that the Nationals will hang onto him for a little longer and see whether they can use him as filler in a trade.

Bottom line: of the arbitration eight, expect all to be tendered, with only Stammen and Moore as non-tender candidates.

All FanPosts on FBB consist of content created by site users without editorial oversight by Federal Baseball, and do not necessarily represent the views of the FBB editorial staff.