I published this already on Nats Insider, but being a slow sports week, I wanted to take a look at the Nats offense by position in 2011 and see if there was any hope for improvement. Not scientific by any means, just a look at the past and what might happen in the near future.

We’ll start in the outfield, since there will be the most shifting there.

In 2011, LF was a platoon of (by games played, not started): Nix (73), Morse (54), Shark (33), Bixler (27), Hariston (21), and Gomes (19). Nix and Morse put up some pretty big numbers, with 24 HRs in 127 games. The outstanding 29 HRs for LF in 2011, which ranked 3rd in MLB, can hopefully be duplicated by a full year of Morse, who hit 31 in 146 games. What we should see is a climb in the other numbers. A team batting avg of .256 (13th in MLB) and OBP of .310 (18th) versus a full season of Morse at .303 avg., which would have put him 3rd in the league, and .360 OBP (4th amongst LFs) last year clamors for improvement in 2012. (2012 Outlook – Upside)

In 2011, CF was pretty much a disaster at the plate. Led by "The Arm" (104), "The Shark" (56), Werth (19), Hariston (9), Bixler (4), Nix (3). While the Nats got a respectable 17 HRs from CF, which was 11th in MLB, it was also 24th in Avg. (.245) and 25th in OBP (.307). In my analysis, I am going to assume 2 months of "The Arm" and Cameron and 4 months of Werth. Rick was out most of May last year, but if you double his April production, it would be pretty abysmal: 2 HRs, .234 Avg, .308 OBP. Cameron was terrible in ’11, but career is a .249 hitter with a respectable .338 OBP. Werth was also mediocre the last 4 months of last year (12 HRs and a .219 Avg), you have to feel there is some upside there to at least match the production from CF last year. It just can’t be that bad again, can it? (2012 Outlook – Upside)

In 2011, RF went pretty much as Werth-less did. Werth logged in 133 games in right, with the others including: Nix (12), Gomes (11), Rick and Shark (9 each) and Bixler (6). Werth only batted an abysmal .231 while playing in right last year and the team avg. of .239 ranks 27th out of all MLB. Werth did get on base at a decent clip with an OBP of .330 and the team .329 moves us up to a whopping 22nd in the league. RF contributed 21 HRs (13th) in 2011, with Werth hitting 15, and that helped the Nats get their OPS to .727 (23rd). It’s pretty clear that the Nats were awful in RF last year and we can only hope that 2 months of Werth and 4 months of Namath will make 2011 a distant memory. I just want to add as I close up the OF, that the importance of Laynce Nix in the early part of 2011 as our 4th OF cannot be over stated. He hit .307 the first 2 months last year (mostly in LF), with an OPS of .909. Hopefully, the Nats can find lightning in a bottle again this year. (2012 Outlook – Big Upside)

In 2011, 1st base was "A Tale of Two Cities". LaRoche, the "not so" Beauty, and the "Beast". Before Adam was shut down on May 22nd, he had a .172 Avg, .288 OBP and had 3 HRs in 147 ABs (43 games). Ugh! Then the Beast took over and all was right in the world. In 85 games, Morse hit .336, had a .401 OBP, had 19 HRs and an OPS of 1.002. Wow! That carried the day, since you also had light hitting Marrero (31 games), Nix (9), Cora (8), Stairs (4), Bixler (2) for a team avg of .271 (14th across MLB), OBP of .344 (14th), 22 HRs (19th), and an OPS of .785 (13th). I am going to assume that we get a full season of LaRoche at 1st. The big question is if he will come back to his norm. If he does, which is a .267 Avg, .337 OBP, .815 OPS and around 20 – 25 HRs, I think I’d be pretty happy and it would cover the production in 2011. (2012 Outlook –Hopefully a wash.)

In 2011, 3rd base just wasn’t the same. We were spoiled with RZ’s ’09 and ’10 numbers and 2011 was definitely a letdown. With Zim only in for 97 games last year, we had some very poor fill-ins: Hariston Jr (44), Cora (30) Bixler (14) and Lombardozzi (3). To give you an example, when Zim was in there, he had an avg. of .288, an OBP of .353. and hit 12 HRs (well below his norm) in 389 ABs. His counterparts combined for an avg. of .232, an ~OBP of .286 and hit 2 HRs in 228 ABs. Overall, this gave the Nats a .267 Avg (9th), .330 OBP (12th), .724 OPS (13th) and 14 HRs (16th). Surprisingly, not terrible across MLB, but if you put Zim’s numbers in from ’10 and see what the Nats ranking is: .307 Avg (2nd), .388 OBP (1st), .898 OPS (1st), and 25 HRs (6th). Granted, Zim has only played 162 games in his career once, but you get the picture. When healthy, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen in the game. (2012 Outlook – Big Upside).

SS, 2nd, and Catcher will be very similar to last year in terms of the starters, so they’ll need to focus on improvement year over year. The real change here will be in the backups at every position.

In 2011, SS was dominated by Ian (152 games), with a smattering of Cora (16), Bixler (2), and Lombo/Hariston (1 each). For the year, SS was at a .249 Avg. (22nd), a .295 OBP (22nd), OPS of .640 (22nd) and 8 HRs (20th). That’s pretty consistently mediocre. Ian, to his credit, was a tick above all of those numbers and counted for all 8 of those HRs, meaning, his subs were worse in every way (getting us back to the bench discussion). But, Ian was also down from his career numbers (albeit, a very short career, Sept. ’09 – ’11, thus far). Will we get the 2010 - .269/.308/.700 10 HRs Ian or the 2011 - .253/.298/.656 8 HRs Ian? Regardless, as offensive short stops go, and you can take "offensive" either way there, there’s doesn’t seem to be a lot of upside. The good news, is that to be in the upper half, he would need to do only .265/.326/.694 with 10 HRs, which is doable. (2012 Outlook – Slight Upside)

In 2011, 2nd base was all Danny. At 158 games, he was at one position more than any other Nat. At 2nd, the Nats as a whole were avg ..232 (26th), OBP .316 (13th), OPS .720 (12th) and Danny’s 21 HRs put him 6th amongst 2nd base over MLB. Danny’s first full year was nothing to cry about. Outside of his BA and Ks, his other numbers were quite respectable. You would expect to see some improvement through experience with him, Ian and Wilson in 2012. (2012 Outlook – Slight Upside)

In 2011, Catcher was a platoon of Wilson (108 Games), Pudge (37) and Jesus (22). There was a big drop off when our backups came in behind the plate. Wilson hit for a .267 Avg, .333 OBP, and .773 OPS and 14 HRs. Overall, the Nats were at a .248 Avg (14th), an OBP of .308 (18th), OPS of .708 (14th) and 17 HRs (16th). You have to hope Wilson can go 120 games this year and just maintain or improve slightly upon 2011 and Flores can pick up his pace from his .200/.229/.541 from last year. Career, Flores is at .253/.305/.699. Combining that with Wilson last year, you would be looking at Top 10 at the Catcher Position across the board. (2012 Outlook – Upside)

So, barring injury, outside of 1st Base, there is a lot of room for improvement offensively with this team.

Other Notables

Bench (PH) – In 2011, the Nats were a terrible Pinch Hitting Team. They had an Avg. of .186 (23rd in MLB), OBP of .291 (16th), OPS of .531 (24th) and 2 HRs (14th) in 204 ABs. Hopefully, Davy’s offensive focus with our reserves will get us to the middle of the road (.218/.292/.616). Hariston and Nix were good bench pieces, but they ended up being forced into starter roles for too much of the season. Out of the 204 ABs, the majority went to: Stairs (39) - .154 avg., Cora (37) - .188 avg., Nix (36) - .138 avg., Bixler (23) - .200 avg. You get the picture. (2012 Outlook – Upside)

Batting in the #1 Hole

Everyone knows the lead off spot was a big problem in 2011, but how big was it? The Nats were dead last in avg. 226, dead last in OBP at .285, dead last in OPS at .632 and 25th in Runs Scored at 83. For the majority, Ian had 221 ABs out of a total of 689. Almost a third. He had the highest Avg. and OBP at .281/.318. Roger was 2nd at 215 ABs, but had a .209/.283. Danny (81 ABs), .173/236, Rick (77 ABs), .273/.313 and Werth (49 ABs) .163/.281). If we really are going to put Ian there for the whole year, we should actually see an improvement over last year. Ian was the bright spot at Lead Off….go figure. He actually hit above his norm, so it might be good to give him a full season there. (2012 Outlook – Upside)

Batting in the #2 Hole

What about the #2 Hole? Well, the Nats were dead last in avg. .222, 28th in OBP .283 and in OPS .614 and tied for last in Runs Scored with 62. Who do we put there this year? I have no idea. Almost everybody stunk it up. Out of the majority of the 666 ABs, Ian (170) - .241/.276, Ricky (148) - .209/.278, Danny (143) - .189/.264, Werth (90) - .222/.327, Shark (64) - .313/.333. Going with last year’s numbers, it looks like it would have to be Werth for his OBP or you give Roger a shot. As long as the Shark isn’t leading off, he’s fine. Outside of lead off, Shark batted .319/.347. Not too shabby. (2012 Outlook – Upside)

So, as I said, this is just me having some free time and looking through rose colored glasses at the Nats. Even without landing PF, I still feel optimistic that this will be a better year for the Nats, not including the upgraded pitching staff. Take it FWIW!

So this will be my second year following baseball and last year around this time i made a choice to follow a team, i narrowed the choice down to 2 The Astros (close to where i live and im from texas) and The Nationals (BIG REDSKINS fan, like most DC teams) made a horrid decision and picked the Astros, needless to say the move to the AL, new scumbag owner and possible name change have done everything to drive me away. Also i kept an eye and followed the Nats and i really like the direction they are heading. I cant wait for the year to get going and have been catching up on some games from last season in preparation, big question is this where do you guys get your gear? mlshop.com?? I am looking for hat, tshirt and maybe a jersey to wear on gamedays. Any suggestions are appreciated, also any games you highly recommend from last year to get a good feel for the team?

Starting in a thread last season (and touched on a couple of other times in the past few months) there was discussion about possibly getting together a group (Federal Baseball Singers? Feel free to suggest a better name) to sing the National Anthem at the ballpark this summer. Well, stuff just got real, y'all :-) The Nationals are scheduling auditions (not open to the public) on Saturday, March 10. Only 90 singers/groups will be scheduled, and it's first come/first served. I have a contact in the Nationals' offices that has already put my name on the audition list. From the announcement:

NATIONAL ANTHEM PERFORMERS

The first 90 anthem hopefuls to submit their resume (performance or otherwise) and a recent photo to anthem@nationals.com will be invited to audition live at Nationals Park on Saturday, March 10.

Anthem performers must meet the following prerequisites:

-The anthem should be no longer than 90 seconds

-The anthem must be performed in the traditional style; all auditions must be A cappella.

-Groups and instrumentalists are invited to audition as well

These auditions are not open to the public and will take place regardless of weather conditions For more information, visit nationals.com.

Of course, I don't actually have a group together yet, and apparently I have only a few weeks to put one together. Anyone interested in joining our happy crew please contact me directly at d[underscore]c[underscore]guy@yahoo dot com (yeah, I know, original, isn't it?). Posting in this thread is less helpful, but appreciated as a second option. Bonus points if you have a personal favorite arrangement of the Anthem to try, and/or access to a recording studio. The latter is helpful because the team will also take recorded submissions.

Who's in?

I threw out this idea in the yahoo thread, but wanted to see how much interst there is out there. Right now I will only put up the basics for the draft, because I have a few different ideas for the waiver wire that could work. I will do my best to explain, but I know that at times I am not the best at explaning, so feel free to ask any questions. Here are the basic rules

The draft starts out like a normal auction draft, amount of tokens and minium bid can be deceided once we get a league together. The auction draft would be for your starting spots only, and once you are out of starting spots, you must wait till the reserve round to pick another player(ex you have 3 OF's, you cant take a 4th until the reserve round) The reserve round would just be a normal snake draft. The key difference is that you can choes before the season starts, if you want to extend your player for a second year, or 3rd year at the price you paid for him. Once a players contract is up, you get the right to match the high bid for him in the auction(say Ryan Zimmerman is bid up to $10, the person who has the matching rights to Zim would be able to pay $10 to keep him). There is no way other than trade to get out of a contact, if you cut the player you still have to pay them. That should take care of the basics, and once we get enough people to start a league, we can hammer out the details. Thanks for reading!

Hi all! Long time commenter, first time Fanposter. Anyway, not to perseverate on the past, but I was looking at Jayson Werth's splits for last year on Baseball Reference, and I noticed some pretty astonishing things that indicate, to me, that his approach was way off last year. While watching the games, and observing him in real-time, I thought Werth's problem was that he always put himself in the hole 0-1 by not swinging at the first pitch, giving up count leverage, and leading to him seeing more "pitcher's" pitches. What I was surprised to find out was that, even when he was ahead in the count, Werth struggled mightily.

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I write my own blog, called Baseball's Economist, and I figured some of you may be interested in today's post. Check out the rest of the blog if you'd like. Also a side note, I understand that the signing of Jackson makes John Lannan available to trade for a hitter, but I wasn't able to incorporate that into my analysis.

Edwin Jackson, the last major free agent, signed a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals last week. The move makes some sense, but at the same time doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I wrote a piece at the beginning of the off-season, about why Edwin Jackson was the best (value) starting pitcher on the market. So obviously, I think the Nationals made the right move in signing him, and he’ll well worth the $9-12 million (exact details won’t be released until he has his physical) they’re paying him. Washington was already an interesting team going into 2012, and the addition of Jackson makes them all the more interesting.

Jackson has been extremely consistent over the last three seasons; however, his consistency on the diamond hasn’t led to a consistent home. The Nationals will be his 8th franchise in the last ten seasons and fifth in the last three years (if you count the small stay as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise). Over the last three seasons Jackson has averaged 11.66 wins, 207.66 innings, a FIP- of 92, and an fWAR of 3.73. The Nationals should expect about those same numbers from Jackson this season, which would be a very solid year, and worth the amount of money they’re spending on him. Jackson should be worth between $15 and $17 million next season (if you value one win above replacement at $5 million).

The Nationals rotation will now consist of Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jackson, and John Lannan. That’s a very good rotation, maybe not as good as the rotations of division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia, but an argument can be made for the Nationals rotation being among the best in the National league. You add in the fact that Bryce Harper is coming up the ranks, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman could bounce back, the back-end of their bullpen consists of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Brad Lidge, and there may be a contending team in DC. Washington’s division is tough, but the Central is weaker (without Pujols or Fielder), and the West is also not very strong, so if Bud Selig succeeds in adding a second Wild Card team for 2012, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Washington competing for that final playoff spot.

Washington didn’t overpay for Jackson, and have made serious acquisitions to move them closer to contention right now and for the future. My only confusion with this move is why it was only for one season. The Nationals have Strasburg, Werth, Harper, Gonzalez, and both Zimmerman(n)’s locked up beyond 2012, so why didn’t they sign the 28 year-old righty in Jackson for a longer period of time? The answer is that Jackson and his agent Scott Boras asked for a one-year deal so Jackson can again test the free agent waters next season, and quite frankly this strategy makes no sense. This off-season’s class of starting pitchers was below average, with CJ Wilson as the number 1 free agent starter (Yu Darvish wasn’t truly a free agent). Next years crop of starters could make the market worse for Jackson than it was this season, regardless of his 2012 performance. Potential free agent starters include Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, and Shaun Marcum.

The Nationals and Jackson would have been smarter to agree on a three-year deal, because that would’ve been more beneficial for both parties. But Jackson is only signed for a year and we’ll see what kind of deal Boras can get him next off-season, there’s a good chance that, in 2013, Jackson will be playing for his 9th franchise, which is unbelievable for such a young pitcher with such a solid track record of consistency.

Given the rampant speculation that the Nationals will be trading a starting pitcher following the signing of Edwin Jackson, I have decided to compile a list of potential trade targets for the Nationals.

1. Marlon Byrd, CF Chicago Cubs. This is probably the most commonly discussed option. Byrd represents an excellent possibilty given that is a OBP,plus-defending centerfielder with one year left on his contract. His salary of $6.5 million is probably not impossible to manage, and the Cubs have an immeadiate replacement in Brett Jackson. The real problem here is that the Cubs have a full rotation, and 2 Lannan-esque pitchers in Randy Wells and Paul Maholm. I think the best chance of this deal going down is if Selig sends Byrd to the Red Sox as compensation for Epstein moving to the Cubs. Then the Red Sox trade Byrd for Lannan. Byrd has been an erratic player drifting from all-star caliber seasons to non-factor status. His last stay in DC was not a positive expierence. Recently, I read that Byrd maybe in shape for a bounce back year after discovering and resolving some dietary issues.

2. Jarrod Dyson, CF Kansas City Royals. Dyson wouldn't be on this list if I didn't see this article today. David Schoenfield obviously doesn't think much of John Lanan, but it is fair that I probably value Lannan over market rate. Dyson, however, would be a total failure. He's 27, never really stuck in the MLB, and his defense is supposed to be above average due in large part to plus speed. Last year at AAA, he posted .279/.356/.357 which might be passable if he was a younger prospect in a down year, but he was 26 in AAA for a second time and it was basically a career year for him. There is basically no gain for the Nationals here. I particularly like Mr. Schoenfield's inspired observation that "Jarrod Dyson is an all-speed, no-power center fielder who might be a slight upgrade over Roger Bernadina if he can get on base enough." Interestingly enough, Roger Bernadina would be an upgrade over Bernadina if he could get on base enough.

3. The Blue Jays OF except Jose Bautista- Really we are looking at 3 players here. Ben Francisco, Eric Thames, and Colby Rasmus. Francisco is a corner OF with a decent bat but not enough power to get really excited about. He might have decent enough contact skills to be a lead-off for the the Nationals. Thames is younger, left-handed, and a fair amount of pop. His ISO was .257 in AAA last year, when he slugged .610 over 241 PAs. In 2010, he mashed .526 over 573 PAs in AA. I include Colby Rasmus here only because he was mentioned in an earlier thread. Although Rasmus was not productive in his short time with Toronto (.173/.201/.316), I sincerely doubt that they are ready to give up on him after trading several players to acquire him, and more importantly giving up the draft picks those players would have granted the Blue Jays. The Jays are also one of the few teams that could get a significant upgrade at the back of a rotation that has enough room to include Dustin McGowan. I think of all these options Eric Thames is the best choice for the Nationals, though he would likely be relegated once Harper is ready to come up.

4. Charlie Blackmon or Dexter Fowler, CF Colorado Rockies, The Rockies rotation is generally in shambles, the OF well-stocked and Tim Wheeler is a quality prospect that destoryed AA in 2011. Of these two, I think the question comes down to if either can actually black CF. I wasn't able to find much on Blackmon's defense in CF, but Fowler is generally loathed as a defender with poor range and below-average arm. Fowler did post a .363 OPB though, so he could probably handle the lead-off role.

5. Gorkys Hernandez and Starling Marte, CF Pirates. Though the Pirates could really use a pitcher like Lannan, $5 million might be too expensive for thier taste. In any case, Hernandez is the more likely trade canidate. He's a speedy, plus-defending CF and shown a decent ability to get on base in the minors, however, he has little to no power, so it is hard to imagine that trend continuing to the MLB. Marte, on other hand, is a true treasure of the prospect. He destoryed AA this year posting .332/.370/.500 while generally getting good, not great marks for range, and plus (maybe plus plus) arm. However, until the Pirates lock up McCutchen, it is hard to see them trading Marte. Even if they were to trade Marte, they would want more than Lannan. It is worth noting they have Jose Tabata and Alex Presley in the majors and doing well. And Josh Bell and Robbie Grossman coming behind in the minors. Pittsburgh is also looking for a 1B, but there is almost no reason to believe they would have interest in LaRoche at $10 million, especially since he hasn't shown he is recovered yet.

6. Logan Schafer/Caleb Gindl, Milwakee Brewers- The Brewers have a reasonably deep OF, featuring with Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, and Norichika Aoki. The Brewers are could also use another SP to replace Naverson. My hope here would be for Schafer, lefty bat with less power than Gindl, but more likely to stay in CF.

7. Blake Tekotte, CF San Diego Padres- He's old for AA at 24, but he posted .285/.393/.498 with the Texas Missions. Here is a snippet I lifted from John Sickels reviews over at Minor League Ball: "A 5-11, 175 pound left-handed hitter, Tekotte has above-average running speed and has enough range and arm strength for center field. At the plate, he shows good strike zone judgment and has always drawn walks, back to his college days. He won't be a big home run hitter in the majors, but he has enough pop to keep the pitchers honest. His strikeout rates can be rather high, and he shows much better plate discipline and power against right-handed pitchers, hitting .301/.431/.579 against them this year vs. .296/.367/.470 against lefties. This pattern has persisted through his career." The Padres rarely have a hard time finding pitchers to play in a stadium roughly the size of Alaska, but their rotation is young, unproven and with a few question injury history. They might be interested in Lannan's durability. Another option here is to find a more traditional corner OF that we could trade for Lannan, then give the Padres someone to replace Will Venable. Although the Padres seem to be building for a 2013 run, they could make a move in the NL West if they can bring up some key prospects.

I'm sure there are other options out there, and I would like to discuss them, but this has grown over-long. Additionally, as quickly as yesterday happened, I am a little worried that by the time I post this Run Silent Rizzo will have bagged us a trade. I haven't spent a great deal of time examining each of these in detail, but I wanted create a point for converstation.

Yes, I know it's early, but we're only a couple of weeks from spring training, and MOST of the pre-season wheeling and dealing is through. So I feel it's time for me to post my eyeball-based projections for which teams will make the playoffs. I'm NOT going to predict how the playoffs go from there, though.

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Lot of talk lately about what Harper will contribute this year. Unfortunately the answer is almost certaily very little. According to Baseball-Reference.com exactly 58 players have played 40 or more games as 19 year olds since 1901. About one every other year. Almost all of them were lousy. Only two were really good. Mell Ott in 1928 and Jimmie Foxx in 1927. They had OPS of 921 and 908, respectively. (I used OPS as my comparison - nothing's perfect).

Some really great players played as 19 year olds; Robin Yount, ARod, Pudge, Justin Upton, Beltre. All of them had OPS of less than 700 which is pretty weak.

The most recent decent season by a 19 year old was Renteira in '96 with an OPS of 757. Last year, an average starter put up OPS of about 780, so 757 isn't great.

So, it's been 84 years since a 19 year old has put up an OPS better than an average starter.

Mike Trout is interesting to consider. He was ranked ahead of Harper by Baseball America last year, his OPS last year was 672. His slash line was 220/281/390. That is awful. It's really hard to justify giving a starting spot to a guy performing like that.

Trout will probably be much better this year. Twenty year olds do much better. There have been 186 players with at least 40 games played at age 20. And a number of them were excellent. Mel Ott improved to OPS of 1.084 at 20, which is amazing. Some other great ones were ARod, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Jimmie Foxx, Ruth, Frank Robinson and Mantle. Even here though, only 32 have EVER put up OPS of >780 at age 20. But, at least it's happened multiple times in living memory. Just in the last 20 or so years the following have had OPS >780 at age 20; ARod, Heyward, Griffey, Stanton, J Upton and Cabrera. I think Harper has a chance to be in that group...as a 20 year old.

I think it's important to understand how rare it would be for Harper to have a strong season this year. More likely, he will be in the Ian Desmond, Rick Ankiel range this year with OPS of 650 or so. That would actually be a big accomplishment, putting him in the top 10 all time seasons for a 19 year old.

Of course, I'd love see the 19 year list re-written with Harper at the top or even just below Ott and Foxx. But, it's really asking too much of him. Let's hope for a strong '13 from him.

So now that This guy named Yu has come over to the US yu (you see what I did there?) probably are wondering who the next stud Japanese pitcher is. Well you know what? I have the answer. Here he is. This is Masahiro Tanaka the 23 year old ace of the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. He is 6'2" 205 lbs so he's not as big and strong as Darvish, but he is bigger than most Japanese pitchers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Acu_tWYNNpA