Federal Baseball: FanPosts

In search of a more perfect offensive metric

2013-05-18T00:21:22Z

One of my pet peeves, when examining offensive performance metrics or debating player comparisons, is the lack of accounting for when a hitter makes an out that moves runners versus an out that does not. The so called productive versus unproductive out assessment. Recently, after making a comment about Espinosa's very poor offensive performance this season, which no one challenges, I also mentioned his performance in previous years which included a high strikeout rate. Further, I threw in a comment about Adam Dunn in which I stated that the Nationals were better off without him, for a similar reason that, in my opinion, even a career average season by Espy is not good. That reason is a very high strikeout rate which a relatively high home run rate and/or walk rate may not compensate for. Well, mention of Dunn in an unattractive manner brought on the wrath of RobBob, a strong defender of Dunn previously. That got me motivated again to think about developing an offensive metric that takes into account both the value of hits, and weighs extra base hits more, but also factors in productive outs, which move runners. Here is a rather half-baked formula that I present for comment and revision, with the further hope that any new metric can be calculated with easily available statistics.

Offensive Production Statistic = A + B + C where

A = (total bases) / (# of at bats) = traditional slugging pct

B = (total bases advanced by runners due to at bats of individual) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

C = (runs batted in) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

Explanation and examples

Term A: the slugging pct., is independent of runners on base, so it gives ample credit to a player on a weak offensive team

Term B : a measure of how productive the batter is with runners on base, including via walks, HPB, hits, errors, and outs. The denominator normalizes for the number of opportunities to advance runners.

Term C: extra credit for advancing runners to score, and also normalizes for the RBI opportunities.

A player walks with bases loaded, so for this AB the contribution to each term in the formula is:

A = 1 / 1 = 1

B = 3 / 3 = 1

C = 1 /1 = 1 so OPS contrib. for this AB is 1 + 1 + 1 = 3

A grand slam home run, gives

A = 4 / 1 = 4

B = 6 / 3 = 2

C = 4 / 3 = 1.33 so OPS is 7.33

A strikeout with the bases loaded (along with a DP, the ultimate rally killer)

A = 0 / 1 = 0

B = 0 / 3 = 0

C = 0 / 1 = 0 so OPS for this AB is 0. Note that the denominator of term B (3) will contribute to raising the denominator when the formula is used for a sample of ABs, thereby lowering the term B contribution to OPS and penalizing the player for freezing 3 base runners via his strikeout.

I look forward to comments and proposed revisions to the OPS formulation. It has at least minor flaws, which may not be correctable with easily available player statistics. The hope is that the final version of OPS will improve our knowledge of player offensive ability beyond what is available now, which does not add in productive outs or hitting with runners on base to the slugging percentage.

Offensive Production Statistic = A + B + C where

A = (total bases) / (# of at bats) = traditional slugging pct

B = (total bases advanced by runners due to at bats of individual) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

C = (runs batted in) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

Explanation and examples

Term A: the slugging pct., is independent of runners on base, so it gives ample credit to a player on a weak offensive team

Term C: extra credit for advancing runners to score, and also normalizes for the RBI opportunities.

A player walks with bases loaded, so for this AB the contribution to each term in the formula is:

A = 1 / 1 = 1

B = 3 / 3 = 1

C = 1 /1 = 1 so OPS contrib. for this AB is 1 + 1 + 1 = 3

A grand slam home run, gives

A = 4 / 1 = 4

B = 6 / 3 = 2

C = 4 / 3 = 1.33 so OPS is 7.33

A strikeout with the bases loaded (along with a DP, the ultimate rally killer)

A = 0 / 1 = 0

B = 0 / 3 = 0

In search of a more perfect offensive measure

2013-05-17T23:10:24Z

Offensive Production Statistic = A + B + C where

A = (total bases) / (# of at bats) = traditional slugging pct

B = (total bases advanced by runners due to at bats of individual) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

C = (runs batted in) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

Explanation and examples

Term A: the slugging pct., is independent of runners on base, so it gives ample credit to a player on a weak offensive team

Term C: extra credit for advancing runners to score, and also normalizes for the RBI opportunities.

A player walks with bases loaded, so for this AB the contribution to each term in the formula is:

A = 1 / 1 = 1

B = 3 / 3 = 1

C = 1 /1 = 1 so OPS contrib. for this AB is 1 + 1 + 1 = 3

A grand slam home run, gives

A = 4 / 1 = 4

B = 6 / 3 = 2

C = 4 / 3 = 1.33 so OPS is 7.33

A strikeout with the bases loaded (along with a DP, the ultimate rally killer)

A = 0 / 1 = 0

B = 0 / 3 = 0

Offensive Production Statistic = A + B + C where

A = (total bases) / (# of at bats) = traditional slugging pct

B = (total bases advanced by runners due to at bats of individual) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

C = (runs batted in) / (total # runners on base summed over all ABs)

Explanation and examples

Term A: the slugging pct., is independent of runners on base, so it gives ample credit to a player on a weak offensive team

Term C: extra credit for advancing runners to score, and also normalizes for the RBI opportunities.

A player walks with bases loaded, so for this AB the contribution to each term in the formula is:

A = 1 / 1 = 1

B = 3 / 3 = 1

C = 1 /1 = 1 so OPS contrib. for this AB is 1 + 1 + 1 = 3

A grand slam home run, gives

A = 4 / 1 = 4

B = 6 / 3 = 2

C = 4 / 3 = 1.33 so OPS is 7.33

A strikeout with the bases loaded (along with a DP, the ultimate rally killer)

A = 0 / 1 = 0

B = 0 / 3 = 0

Bryce Harper and Nationals Fandom...from a Cardinal fan

2013-05-14T06:48:56Z

This isn't the reason I am making the post, but it did jog my memory, but let me say that I hope BH will be okay. Man, that was brutal. Besides the fact that I will absolutely pull for Harper to fail against El Birdos, I really do like watching him play, not to mention the human factor of not wanting someone to get hurt, so I do hope he turns out fine.

Anyway, if I may, understanding that as Nats fans your attention is probably on the condition of BH, I wonder if I could ask a question and get some stories and/or feelings? At this point I want to make clear this does not come from a trolling, condescending point of view, but one of genuine curiosity. During the NLDS last year, I saw the lively, packed house in DC. I became curious.

Long story, short, I began to wonder where the Nats fans were, pre-Nats, in allegiance. I have generally assumed former/current Oriole and/or former Bravos fans, perhaps some never-was-a-baseball-fan-until...I am guessing there are some interesting stories to be told. I would be interested in hearing them. Occasionally on VEB, there are posts along the lines of "how did you become a Cards fan" type of thing. I usually enjoy reading those.

I wanted to ask this question of you all just after the NLDS, and asked for advice from the Viva El Birdos community. The general consensus, almost without exception, was, "yeah, maybe wait a bit on that one." As great as that fifth game was for Birdos backers, I can't imagine a more painful, sudden, what-the-hell-just-happened way to lose a playoff series. That was hard-core, flukish (is that a word?), even. The advice was well taken. There were a couple of Nat lurkers on VEB who shared their opinion, but, again, I am guessing there are some interesting stories.

Personally, I am a Cardinal fan from a family of Cardinal fans, going back generations. In fact, I was openly a Cardinal fan, de facto anti-Cub fan, before I fully understood baseball, to say nothing of understanding how MLB works. Maybe that's where my curiosity comes from. I don't know. Doesn't matter.

So, quick recap...I hope Harper is OK, I respect (fear) your team, especially the pitching, but I would find it meaningful to read stories of how people came to back their boys, the Nats, in this case.

I hope this post is taken in the we're-all (mostly)-Americans-spirit in which it is offered.

Go Birdos/get well BH!

I hope this post is taken in the we're-all (mostly)-Americans-spirit in which it is offered.

Go Birdos/get well BH!

Seems like there is a complete meltdown

2013-05-13T17:54:02Z

Not only are the players losing it-- Zimm can't throw, bullpen stinks,Espinosa strikes out way too much-- but now davey takes out Gio who had a really nice outing giving up only two hits with less than 90 pitches?!?! What was he thinking. I am now disappointed not only in Zimmerman, Espinosa, Duke, Larouche, Storen for their sloppy play, poor hitting or poor pitching, but with Davey for poor judgement taking Gio out and apparently not holding players accountable for non-performance. Y'all will say its still early in the season and it maybe; but if this goes on much longer, the season of hope will be a big disappointment

Zack Duke

2013-05-11T22:05:05Z

Send him to the minor leagues, sell him to some team in Japan or just release him. He is pathetic. Reason he's been released by just about every major league team. Looked pathetic against Cubs 5/11 capping a run of garbage appearances. Really, against the cubs!?!? Come on Rizzo, dump this joke. How much is this guy making... Whatever, it's highway robbery. I think what has me so pissed is that Edwin Jackson is going to win this game ... Thank you Ryan and zack for blowing what should be a win but thanks to you two is an ugly loss to a bad team

Really getting tired off Zimmerman

2013-05-11T21:38:00Z

What's up with a third baseman who can't throw the ball? If this were anyone other than Zimmerman, he would be benched. It's really outrageous that he is playing everyday at third base. If this keeps up, he will be the third base equivalent of the former St. Louis pitcher who couldn't get the ball over the plate(forgot his name). It's not what you have done in the past; it's what have done lately and lately Zimmerman just sucks

Wins all around in the Nats minors. 5/9/13

2013-05-10T02:40:48Z

It was an almost perfect night in the Nationals organization with all but one Nats team picking up a win on Thursday. Here's a minor league round up..........

Triple-A: Syracuse Chiefs.

Final: Syracuse 2, Durham 4.

Ross Ohlendorf tossed 8 innings, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits, while walking 4 and striking out 4. Micah Owens hit his 3rd homerun of the season in the 3rd inning, to pick up RBI #15 on the year. It was a solo shot, yet not enough to help back Ohlendorf. Eury Perez also went 3-for-4 in the game.

Double-A: Harrisburg Senators.

Final: Harrisburg 6, Binghamton 1.

Paul Demny and Ian Krol combined for a no-hitter as the Senator beat the Binghamton Mets, 6-1. Demny went 8 string inning, allowing one runs on three walk, while striking out 5. After throwing 113 pitches, he was relieved for Krol, who was able to finish off the no-hitter for Harriburg. The Sens were able to tally up 6 runs, all in the 1st (2), 2nd (1), and 6th (3) innings.

Single-A Advanced: Potomac Nationals.

Final: Potomac 3, Wilmington 2.

On a wild pitch in the 10th inning, the Nats were able to claim victory to get themselves above .500 on the season. Potomac only collected four hits by four different player on the night, while Wilmington on the other hand was able to muster up nine with only two runs to show for. Brian Dupra pitched 6 innings surrenderin 2 runs on 6 hits, while striking out one. Matt Grace and Derek Self combined for 4 shutout inning with only 3 hits allowed. The Potomac pitching staff didn't issue a single walk on the night.

Single-A: Hagerstown Suns.

Final: Hagerstown 3, Delmarva 1.

The Suns were able to claim victory 3-1 over the Shorebirds, behind the solid bullpen performance and an offensive comeback. After trailing 1-0 in the Suns were able to score three unanswered runs in the later innings to win the 1st game of the series. Dixon Anderson went 6 inning, allowing one run on seven hit, he didn't walk a batter and struck out 5. From there, 5 Suns pitchers combined for four shutout innings of effective relief, surrendering only 1 hit. Wes Schill, Khayyan Norfork, Pedro Severino, and Stephen Perz each had two hits in the game.

For more Nats minor, check back here daily on FederalBaseball.com.

It was an almost perfect night in the Nationals organization with all but one Nats team picking up a win on Thursday. Here's a minor league round up..........

Triple-A: Syracuse Chiefs.

Final: Syracuse 2, Durham 4.

Double-A: Harrisburg Senators.

Final: Harrisburg 6, Binghamton 1.

Single-A Advanced: Potomac Nationals.

Final: Potomac 3, Wilmington 2.

Single-A: Hagerstown Suns.

Final: Hagerstown 3, Delmarva 1.

For more Nats minor, check back here daily on FederalBaseball.com.

Updated minors recap: 5/8/13.

2013-05-08T21:23:54Z

While Strasburg, Harper, and the rest of the big league Nats get set to greet the Tigers to the nations capital, let's take a quick look at whats happening around the Nationals minor league system.........

Triple-A: Syracuse Chiefs.

Syracuse (13-19) R H E

0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 5 9 2

Durham (20-13)

0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 8 1

W: Rosenbaum (3-2, 2.27) ; L: Colome (1-5, 3.13) ; SV: Davis, E (4)

HR: SYR: Costanzo (4) , Perez, E (1) .

Player Pos AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG

Eury Perez CF 5 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 .330

Jeff Kobernus LF 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .375

Will Rhymes 2B 4 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333

Chris Marrero 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .301

Micah Owings DH 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .265

Zach Walters SS 4 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 .237

Mike Costanzo 3B 4 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 2 .211

Carlos Maldonad C 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .105

Erik Komatsu RF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .118

Totals 36 5 9 3 0 2 5 1 17 .266

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA

Daniel Rosenbaum (W, 3-2) 7.0 4 2 1 1 7 0 2.27

J.C. Romero (H, 2) 0.1 2 1 1 1 0 0 2.84

Jeff Mandel (H, 2) 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.06

Fernando Abad (H, 3) 0.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.59

Erik Davis (S, 4) 1.0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.20

Totals 9.0 8 3 2 2 8 0 4.80

Backed by a strong performance by Daniel Rosenbaum and a couple early runs, the Scyracuse Chiefs were able to defeat the Bulls 5-3 for their 3rd straight win and will now go for the series sweep on Thursday.

Double-A: Harrisburg Senators.

Altoona (13-20) R H E

0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 12 2

Harrisburg (15-18)

0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 6 9 3

W: Kasparek (1-0, 3.78) ; L: Lehman (1-3, 6.23)

HR: ALT: Lambo (7) , Cunningham (5) . HAR: Howell (1) , Rendon (3) .

Player Pos AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG

Brian Goodwin CF 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .264

Josh Johnson SS 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 .294

Anthony Rendon 3B 3 1 2 1 0 1 4 2 0 .303

Justin Bloxom 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .256

Jerad Head RF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .263

J. Van Ostrand LF 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .467

Jose Lozada 2B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .243

Pat Lehman P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

b- D. Hood PH 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .235

Jeff Howell C 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 .158

Blake Treinen P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000

M. Broadway P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000

a- Rick Hague PH 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .206

Pat McCoy P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Sean Nicol 2B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .197

Totals 37 6 9 1 0 2 5 7 7 .242

Blake Treinen 3.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 4.89 ERA.

M. Broadway 2.2 IP,0 H,0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1.50 ERA.

Pat McCoy 2.0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2.84

Pat Lehman (L) 2.0 4 1 1 0 5 1 6.23

Totals 10.0 12 7 7 2 12 2 4.10

Even after a game tying 2-run homerun in the 9th inning by Anthony Rendon, the Senators fell to the Curve 7-6 in 10 innings. The Senators now head on the road for four games in Binghamton to face the Mets.

Class-A Advanced: Potomac Nationals.

Final/5: Potomac 3, Wilmington 2.

In a rain shortend affair the Nats were able to take an early 1-0 lead before losing it in the 4th. They were ablt to take the leade in the 5th when a wild pitch scored Randolph Oduber. After a 49 minute rain delay the gamewas called and the Nationals got the win, 3-2.

Robbie Ray earned his 3rd win of the year as he went to distance tossing 5 inning, allowing 2 runs on 2 hit, while walking 2 and striking out 7.

Class-A: Hagerstown Suns.

THU, MAY 9, 7:05 PM ET @ Municipal Stadium

Matt Taylor (1-2, 1.19 ERA) vs TBD (Suns)

The Suns slpit a double header with the Rome Braves on Tuesday and will begin a 4-game home set with the Delmarva Shorebirds on Thursday.

Triple-A: Syracuse Chiefs.

Syracuse (13-19) R H E

0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 5 9 2

Durham (20-13)

0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 3 8 1

W: Rosenbaum (3-2, 2.27) ; L: Colome (1-5, 3.13) ; SV: Davis, E (4)

HR: SYR: Costanzo (4) , Perez, E (1) .

Player Pos AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG

Eury Perez CF 5 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 .330

Jeff Kobernus LF 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .375

Will Rhymes 2B 4 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333

Chris Marrero 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .301

Micah Owings DH 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .265

Zach Walters SS 4 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 .237

Mike Costanzo 3B 4 1 2 1 0 1 3 0 2 .211

Carlos Maldonad C 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .105

Erik Komatsu RF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .118

Totals 36 5 9 3 0 2 5 1 17 .266

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA

Daniel Rosenbaum (W, 3-2) 7.0 4 2 1 1 7 0 2.27

J.C. Romero (H, 2) 0.1 2 1 1 1 0 0 2.84

Jeff Mandel (H, 2) 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.06

Fernando Abad (H, 3) 0.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.59

Erik Davis (S, 4) 1.0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1.20

Totals 9.0 8 3 2 2 8 0 4.80

Double-A: Harrisburg Senators.

Altoona (13-20) R H E

0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 12 2

Harrisburg (15-18)

0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 6 9 3

W: Kasparek (1-0, 3.78) ; L: Lehman (1-3, 6.23)

HR: ALT: Lambo (7) , Cunningham (5) . HAR: Howell (1) , Rendon (3) .

Player Pos AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG

Brian Goodwin CF 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .264

Josh Johnson SS 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 .294

Anthony Rendon 3B 3 1 2 1 0 1 4 2 0 .303

Justin Bloxom 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .256

Jerad Head RF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .263

J. Van Ostrand LF 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .467

Jose Lozada 2B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .243

Pat Lehman P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

b- D. Hood PH 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .235

Jeff Howell C 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 .158

Blake Treinen P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000

M. Broadway P 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000

a- Rick Hague PH 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .206

Pat McCoy P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000

Sean Nicol 2B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .197

Totals 37 6 9 1 0 2 5 7 7 .242

Blake Treinen 3.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 4.89 ERA.

M. Broadway 2.2 IP,0 H,0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1.50 ERA.

Pat McCoy 2.0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2.84

Pat Lehman (L) 2.0 4 1 1 0 5 1 6.23

Totals 10.0 12 7 7 2 12 2 4.10

Class-A Advanced: Potomac Nationals.

Final/5: Potomac 3, Wilmington 2.

Robbie Ray earned his 3rd win of the year as he went to distance tossing 5 inning, allowing 2 runs on 2 hit, while walking 2 and striking out 7.

Class-A: Hagerstown Suns.

THU, MAY 9, 7:05 PM ET @ Municipal Stadium

Matt Taylor (1-2, 1.19 ERA) vs TBD (Suns)

The Suns slpit a double header with the Rome Braves on Tuesday and will begin a 4-game home set with the Delmarva Shorebirds on Thursday.

2013 Nats Park Concessions and Neighborhood Details

2013-05-07T15:30:09Z

Hi Federal Baseballers,

I know this comes up every year, so to suit my own needs and to provide for the community throughout the rest of the season, here is thread for concessions etc around Nats Park. I don't see one in the Fan Post list yet.

Some of us poor Nats fans don't live near the district, and so cannot regularly attend the games. I'm coming to DC this weekend for what will likely be my only chance to see the Nats this year other than when they come to Denver. I know that the ballpark and its surrounding neighborhood change every year, so perhaps some of you fine folks can share some insight about food and beverage options both inside and outside the stadium. I'd like to eat before the game so it's not all Hard Times chili for me all weekend. No offense to Hard Times, I do love that place.

If you ever find yourself out here in Colorado, I'm happy to provide any knowledge you need about attending games at Coors Field. It really is a great place to watch baseball, unless you like pitching duels.

Hi Federal Baseballers,

Werth Contract Revisited

2013-05-02T00:16:19Z

I don't understand the logic of having to overpay a player so much to be taken seriously in free agency. I was highly against the 7 year 126 million dollar contract given to Werth. He never hit .300, had a 30 HR, 100 RBI season ever. That is with having his best years playing half the season in one of the best hitter parks in Philly. Just because the Learners had their feelings hurt by people calling them cheap in blogs; that means you MUST overpay someone to be taken seriously. I think not.The cubs will have a better chance at moving Alfonzo Soriano's contract before the Nats can move Werth's contract. At least Soriano still had a 30+ homerun season at almost 40 years old.

The Rays are taken seriously as a winning ball club. They don't reach for players in Free Agency. They develop within just as well as any team in baseball. They developed Ben Zobrist who has some of the best WAR stats every season. They have him signed for 4 years/18 million. I would have much rather the Nats have not reached for a player like Werth and kept building. The point being because the Rays don't reach for players they were able to develop a similar if not better and much cheaper player than Werth.

Free agents are persuaded by winning as well as money. Jayson Werth was injured the majority of the Nats 2012 season. So it is possible without Werth the Nats would have had just as good of a season, maybe a couple of wins less without Werth and that massive log jam contract.

instead of signing Werth in 2010. The Nats could have passed on signing any big free agents in 2010. They could have signed Jason Kubel in 2011 who has actually hit 30 HR in a season. They could have tried to sign Carlos Beltran. They could have even signed Coco Crisp. Who was one of the more valuable players on that magical A's team from last season.

At the very last the Nationals would have the option to trade for a better LF or RF(Being that Harper could play either position) if Werth's contract wasnt handcuffing them.

I know many are going to say the Nats weren't winning. Yeah well they did last year. Not signing Jayson Werth doesn't change the fact that the Nats had that pitching staff from last year. Which outside of Gio who was brought in a trade and Edwin Jackson was built from within. Harper, Desmond, Zimmrman, Espinosa, Lombo, Moore were all from within. Morse came in a trade. All of those important pieces would have been here regardless of signing or not signing Werth. Those pieces were more important than Werths 81 games of above average baseball last year

At the very last the Nationals would have the option to trade for a better LF or RF(Being that Harper could play either position) if Werth's contract wasnt handcuffing them.

When Do We Blame Management for Roster Negligence?

2013-05-01T12:23:35Z

It's early...right? Well, now it's May, and that excuse is running its course.

The truth is, the Nats need to kick it up a notch if they want to stay relevant in September. The Braves have our number, and we haven't found a chink in their armor. The 3 out of 4 Reds series was promising. Gio looked like his former self. But last night he threw about 1,500 pitches for 70 walks before 5 innings were up. Strasburg looks flustered.

This all leaves us with a critical question: how much is inexperienced players with butterflies and how much is inept management? Is the talent really there and just waiting to manifest itself? Or has Davey botched his roster duties?

The main problems, as everyone knows are Espi-no-hit and LaRoche. These guys are rally-killing sub-.200 sieves that basically guarantee outs. Chad Tracy is not far behind them. Yet Davey somehow keeps playing them. In fact, he kept LaRoche in the critical #4 spot, a prime location for stopping rallies. And I get Davey's decisions to a certain degree -- he "stands by his guys" through thick and thin. But when do you realize that your struggling players are simply hurting the team? Espi-no-hit is like that promising tech stock you're just waiting to take off, but it hovers at $2. He's all potential but no revenue. Lombo has a low ceiling, but at least he'll cut you regular dividends with an empty .280-.300 average. LaRoche is the Cisco stock that has been at $80, but now is down to $20 and it's growth potential is seriously limited. How long will we let these guys drag down the portfolio? Tyler Moore at least has lots of upside. He hit home run percentage last year was 5.9%, more than double the league average. Maybe this guy could be a secret goldmine. Isn't it worth looking into? Finally, Chad Tracy has been a wandering journeyman his whole career, and now he gets a roster nod over Rendon, who has just flashed some potential? When do we say that Davey is stuck in his ways? Was it his stubbornness that got him fired from four ball clubs? He also had Chad Tracy steal 2nd and get thrown out by the unstealable Yadier Molina. Is this the management of a world series contender?

Davey no doubt has admirable qualities. He gets a lot from his players, especially loyalty. But when do his actual results diminish his intangibles? I think it's time to realize that we're not a juggernaut, but a darkhorse. We'll need to scratch and claw our way into the playoffs. This takes innovative thinking, which is hard to imagine from someone stubborn like Davey. Maybe Moore and Lombo are duds, but it's worth a shot. Also, Rizzo should try to make some good moves before the trade deadline. Maybe trade LaRoche to Houston for a Bud Norris? Or to Tampa for a Jeremy Hellickson? It would be nice to get a decent #4-5 guy in case Dan Haren turns out to be a complete black hole.

It's time for innovation, not stubbornness. And if that means not standing by your guys 100%, so be it.

It's early...right? Well, now it's May, and that excuse is running its course.

It's time for innovation, not stubbornness. And if that means not standing by your guys 100%, so be it.

Nats Struggles Show in Apathetic Clubhouse Feel

2013-04-30T02:42:46Z

We all saw it last year, the season all Nationals, and hell, all baseball fans were waiting for and excited to see: a playoff bound Nationals team. The team was led by an upbeat new crew of stars to include Gio Gonzalez, Michael Morse, and a youthful duo of top prospects Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The Nationals unfortunately went out in terrible style, blowing a solid 6 run lead to lose Game 5 against the St Louis Cardinals on an unforgettable 9th inning rally. This year, Davey said it, most sports experts said it, and Nats fans want it, the Washington Nationals in the World Series.

Now it is the end of April, the Nationals are now 13-13 after yet another loss to their Atlanta rivals, the Braves, and the Nationals have question marks. Yes, teams have started slower and still rebounded from a rough first month, players start in a slump and rebound, but most those teams are playoff veteran clubs. The Nationals biggest question mark for me remains in the club house...WHERE IS ALL THE FUN AND EXCITEMENT WE SAW LAST YEAR?!

No more talk of the "Goon Squad" on the bench led by Chad Tracy, no more Michael Morse and his goofy antics as the crowd chimed in to his walk up song "Take on me", everyone "Fearing the beard" that Jayson Werth sported, and Stephen Strasburg being held back, but fighting through an outstanding year. This year, it has been strictly business, the bench looks sullen, the team is lacking the spark they had last year, and worst of all, the Nationals are letting the experts choice get to them. The team is playing to win, rather than for the fun of the game. A great example is up the street off 95 in Baltimore. The team up there is still having fun after being eliminated by big time AL East the New York Yankees last season. Baltimore is going up there, swinging the bats, pitching hard, and goofing off, enjoying playing the game they love.

With this said, the Nationals have been beating themselves by not upholding the philosophy they had last season and let the attention of being a new juggernaut cripple them from making strides towards a repeat. If Strasburg would shake off everyones fear of "letting him loose" and the picks of being the Cy Young winner for the season while being the ace, then he would return to last years "go out and pitch" character he was. Harper shouldn't fret that people are worried about him having a so called sophomore slump, and just go out and play, which he has done so well. As well, the team needs to hit better with runners in scoring position and quit striking out in pivotal moments in the game and the bullpen needs to find the upbeat adrenaline rush they had last year. The biggest fear is whether Adam LaRoche can start hitting and live up to the contract he signed that made the fun loving Michael Morse expendable.

Shake it off Washington! Start May off anew and "Play Ball!"

Overall, this isn't the end of the world Nats fans, merely an observation that the jubilant Nats of last season need to regain their form of playing the game for the love of it, not for the curly W's that fans love to see. If they can focus on the love of the game, then the wins will come.

Up next, southpaw Gio Gonzalez looks to keep the same form he had against the Reds, as he squares off against veteran righty Tim Hudson tomorrow at 7:05 ET at Turner Field.

Shake it off Washington! Start May off anew and "Play Ball!"

Up next, southpaw Gio Gonzalez looks to keep the same form he had against the Reds, as he squares off against veteran righty Tim Hudson tomorrow at 7:05 ET at Turner Field.

I need a hotel for Nats in Pittsburgh

2013-04-27T14:33:04Z

Any suggestions on where to stay in Pittsburgh next weekend. Ideally, we'd like to find a deal for someplace in the golden triangle area so we can just walk to the game. It doesn't look like staying along their light rail is viable.

I've never seen a game at PNC Park, though I stood out in front of it in 2002. I've been trying to get up there since 2005, but there has usually been a wedding, birth, etc. coinciding with that series.

An Infield Conundrum

2013-04-22T17:33:02Z

Now at 20 days into the season, the Nats have had to take some lumps with the left side of the infield. I'm not here to jump to early conclusions, but what do the Nats brass have planned for the long term in the infield. Right now the Nats have a 3B on the DL with throwing issues, a SS who has made some questionable errors, a 2B who is not hitting and a 1B who is slowly starting. The bench houses a super utility type player who plays adequate MI defense but is a slap hitter. There are two 1B types, one left handed and one right. Finally there is a top prospect 3B who took the place of the Starter.

How does this all play out? Hang on for two years or trade LaRoche and replace him with Rendon? Wait or trade LaRoche and move Zim to 1st and insert Rendon at 3B. Move Rendon to 2B and move Espinosa? Move Rendon to SS and trade Desmond? Move Zim to 2B or SS and trade Desmond or Lombo?

So many questions. I'm guessing that the idea is Zim moves to 1B and Rendon takes over at 3B, and Danny improves. It does stink that Rendon likely gets sent back down and I doubt LaRoche is moved before playing out his contract, but I say LaRoche plays to career norms and its a non issue.

Thoughts?

We won....so why am I still worried?

2013-04-21T00:33:52Z

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/photos?gameId=330420121&photoId=2901566

(Source: Espn.com)

Our Nationals have beat the Mets 7-6. Harper put on a show with 2 HR and our offense has carried our team to another victory. But was anyone worried about how the game progressed? We were winning and then Gonzalez was bashed for five runs in the 4th inning. We had to fight to regain the lead and we came out by the skin of our teeth. Although it is barely one month into the season, I'm noticing a trend. While it is improbable for our starters to repeat the year they had in 2012, our pitching staff is falling off. I was dismissive about this when we lost to the Braves and Reds because they were teams that possess a better hitting lineup than ours but this is now becoming a problem:

Starters ERA (as of 4/20):

Strasburg - 2.96 (22 H, 3 HR allowed) 4 starts

Gonzalez - 5.85 (18 H, 11 B, 2 HR allowed) 4 starts

Zimmerman - 2.45 (21 H, 1 HR allowed) 3 starts

Haren - 8.10 (26 H, 5 HR allowed) 3 starts

Detwiler: - 0.96 (17 H, 1 HR allowed) 3 starts

Team Offense: 3.8 runs per game

Team Pitching: 4.17 ERA

Strasburg was on the bad end of an error during his last start and his pitch count is increasing. However, he still threw 111 pitches to only get through 6 innings. He has publicily made a vow to go further into games and become a workhorse two years removed from TJ surgery. So far that hasn't been the case. Since Opening Day, he threw for more than 110 pitches in each of his starts and only completed 6.0 IP of work(vs. Cin: 5.1 IP 114 pitches, vs. ATL: 6.0 IP 112 pitches).

Gonzalez is doing worse. I highlighted the eleven walks he allowed because this was a concern when we traded for him. Although he kept the ball in the park and will allow the least amount of hits by the time everyone threw four starts, he has given to many free passes an made situations harder for him than it need to be (4/20 vs. Mets: 5.0 IP, 5H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 SO, 90 pitches).

Haren is literally pitching for batting practice against any team he faced and couldn't escape the 5th inning in any of his previous starts(I don't want to analyze his starts, the 8.10 ERA, 5 HR allowed says it all). Zimmermann and Detwiler have been miraculous but they are in the #3 and #5 spot of the rotation. Zimmerman has picked up from last year and is finally getting the run support to show off his ERA. He is now going further into his starts than he did last year. Detwiler has the smallest repertoire of pitches of anyone in this lineup and somehow but put on impressive starts against CIN, ATL and MIA. I know MIA isn't a good team but why did we have trouble beating a Stanton-less MIA team(Looking at you Haren).

The game plan for this season was to ride our pitching and defense as our strength and let the offense develop. Thankfully we are 10-7 but fans who have watched previous games know it should be worse. I am optimistic because it is still April and everyone is getting their game together but this problem will become a serious issue if we are seeing the same results by Mid-May. Thoughts?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/photos?gameId=330420121&photoId=2901566

(Source: Espn.com)

Starters ERA (as of 4/20):

Strasburg - 2.96 (22 H, 3 HR allowed) 4 starts

Gonzalez - 5.85 (18 H, 11 B, 2 HR allowed) 4 starts

Zimmerman - 2.45 (21 H, 1 HR allowed) 3 starts

Haren - 8.10 (26 H, 5 HR allowed) 3 starts

Detwiler: - 0.96 (17 H, 1 HR allowed) 3 starts

Team Offense: 3.8 runs per game

Team Pitching: 4.17 ERA