Concerning Giambi to the A's:

Don't look for free-agent designated hitter Jason Giambi to join that group. Rather than bring him back, the A's might prefer to take a chance on a trade for Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson, who missed most of last season with a right-wrist injury.

Concerning the Dodgers SS hole:

Other than Furcal, who visited last week with the Oakland A's, the top remaining free-agent shortstop is Orlando Cabrera. The White Sox offered him arbitration, so the Dodgers would have to surrender their first-round draft choice to sign him, and they would prefer to explore other options. But it's a steep drop from Furcal and Cabrera to the likes of Alex Cora, Cesar Izturis and David Eckstein, so the Dodgers will be talking trade at next week's winter meetings.

Concerning the Blue Jays off-season plans:

Unfortunately, the Jays' financial situation (a sinking Canadian dollar in what's already been a poor economic climate) seems to rule out bringing any top-tier free agents north of the border.

So, it appears the two biggest opponents in the Giambi/Bradley race aren't so big after all, and Friedman's favorite trade partner, Uncle Neddy, needs a shortstop. I wonder if Dan Wheeler would be too rich for the Dodgers blood.

Dodgers sign LHRP Carmen Cali (amongst others)

Cali was one of the players I outlined as freely available talent destined to become LOOGYs, and for that I selfishly hope the Dodgers allow Cali the opportunity to replace Joe Beimel. You can read more about Cali by clicking his name at the bottom of this post.

Brewers sign 1B Scott Thorman

This one's a bit interesting. The Brewers all ready have Brad Nelson at first in Nashville and obviously Prince Fielder in the majors. Perhaps this indicates a Fielder trade is on the way (or a lower key Nelson deal) or maybe the Brewers just want some depth in Triple-A. Either way, Thorman has fallen quite a way since being compared to Ryan Klesko in Scout's Honor.

Mariners sign INF Callix Crabbe, Chris Woodward

Okay, this one separates the veterans of BTB reading from the rookies. Those who have read me from the start know how much I liked the Crabbe pick by the Padres in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, he didn't work out too well, but he's still a nice piece to have an injury away. Woodward is a decent defender at the corners, but up the middle he'll cost you a few runs. Neither of these guys are going to knock down doors anytime soon, but they're upgrades over Miguel Cairo and Willie Bloomquist since the M's won't give them nearly 400 combined at-bats.

Also: Joe Torres was signed by the Rangers. I know BTB user Larry mentioned him in the F.A.T. post, so we may as well place a conclusion on his fate this off-season.

Reference

Baseball America Transaction Blog

Luca Pacioli developed the world's first accounting method. It's called the "double-entry" method and works like a register. Rather than "losing" money, Pacioli would "transfer" the money towards another mean. The Rays seem to be attempting this, but perhaps it's more accurately described as a reallocation of assets. With Trever Miller's exit and the possibility of more purges from the Rays bullpen, the team is looking to free cash from the easiest and most volatile unit around.

Bullpens are easy to build and just as easily can collapse. Entering 2008, the Rays featured a number of millionaires in the bullpen; Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Trever Miller, Gary Glover, Al Reyes, and acquiring Chad Bradford in August. Exiting 2008, the Rays have retained only three of those players, with Bradford and Wheeler possible trade candidates and Percival vying to become the new Todd Jones. Despite none being the Rays best reliever, the team will have a little over 10 million tied into Bradford, Percival, and Wheeler. Purging one or two could result in a better bullpen along with more financial freedom. Wheeler and Percival are the top choices to dump. Unfortunately, not many teams are going to line up for a reliever who couldn't stay healthy despite multiple DL trips.

The concern over replacing them is well-placed, but easier than it appears. Let's take a look at their strengths and weaknesses:

Continue reading this post »

[Ed note: This was written prior to Greene being traded to St. Louis, analysis on the move to come later]

Short answer: yes.

Greene's contract plays as much of a part in his availability as his 2008 performance. Greene won't play much of a role on the next competitive Padres team since he's only signed through 2009. His 6.5 million price tag doesn't help matters either. Despite an awful offensive season, in which his wOBA was a mere .264, or roughly -2.4 wins, Greene still managed to be worth about a half of a win defensively. Add in a replacement level and positional adjustment, and you have a measly 1.1 WAR player, a value of 5.24 million last season.

The 2008 offensive collapse starts with BABIP. Traditionally shy of .300, Greene's BABIP dropped to the low-.260's despite his highest line drive percentage in years. Naturally, each of Greene's slash stats suffered because of it. Walks have never been a big part of Greene's game, 2004 and 2006 withstanding, and thus his on-base percentage relies heavily on batting average. Greene's ISO went from a career high in 2007 (.214) to a career low (.126) and with such a low amount of doubles compared to years prior, it would seem Greene was simply unlucky.

Greene should be entering his prime, and coming off of a weak season it's possible he's more likely to ink an extension than he was just 12 months ago. If Greene matches his Marcel projection, he'll be worth -15.3 runs offensively, and if he matches his Chone defensive projection he'll be worth 5 runs defensively. Add in the aforementioned positional and replacement level adjustments and Greene is a 1.97 WAR player, that would make him worth nearly 10 million next season. If Greene were to lose 0.3 WAR each season thereafter, he'd be worth roughly 35 million through 2012.

And to think, we haven't even addressed moving from PetCo to someplace that almost certainly will make his raw statistics look better. Here's a look at Greene's wOBA*-wOBA for the past few seasons (Note: I quoted FanGraphs wOBA earlier in the piece, Stat Corner's wOBA goes one step further and includes RBOE)

Odds are, whatever team acquires Greene won't regret it.

References:

Stat Corner

Fangraphs

Every season, a handful of youngsters listed outside of top prospects lists burst upon the scene, making an unsuspected impact. Here's a few faces to familiarize yourself with before they catch you sleeping:

Note: SBN headshots are a bit more...awkward, than I was hoping for.

Continue reading this post »

Red Sox sign LHP Billy Traber to a minor league contract with invite to spring training.

After spending some brief time with the Yankees in 2008, Traber is back to square one. The good news: his fastball velocity was up two miles per hour since 2007. The bad news: Traber allowed 1.62 homeruns per nine. That total was in 16.7 innings of work, so its only three homeruns, and one of which came to a right-handed batter. Traber's minor league numbers were far better and he'll make a fine addition to Pawtucket until the Sox need him.

Houston Astros sign RHP Doug Brocail to one-year deal.

This is more of a re-signing. Brocail had a club option worth 3.25 million that was declined, otherwise he's making the same amount of money as he did in 2008. Expect some regression and don't be fooled by Brocail's increased strikeout rates. Those were almost entirely from an upping of called strikes, which are less sustainable than swinging strikes. Brocail will have to be worth 0.45 WAR to "earn" his salary, which is easily doable.

Seattle Mariners sign INF Russell Branyan to one-year deal.

Presumptuous people are going to write this off as just another Mariners flub up. Those people are wrong and poor judges of talent. Branyan has a thunder stick and will likely play first base while occasionally DHing and usually striking out quite a bit, but despite that, he's actually a rather disciplined hitter, capable of a low O-Swing%. Branyan's career .345 wOBA is only slightly above league average, but it's going to look awfully good on the cheap for Seattle.

San Francisco Giants sign RHP Bob Howry to one-year deal

The Giants are quietly having a very good off-season. Between Josh Phelps, Jeremy Affeldt, and now Howry they've avoided awful contracts to overrated players as well as draft pick compensation gracefully while upgrading their bullpen and first base situations. Howry gets equal outs via air and ground, but his swinging strike rate has decreased three years running. The deal is only worth 2.75 million, so 0.5 WAR will justify the move.

Reference

Stat Corner

Fangraphs

(So naturally after I link to BA's cover/store it goes down)

Yes, that is B.J. Upton. Yes that is Baseball America's Almanac. No, I have not bought that to do whatever you cruel people will suggest that I do to pictures of B.J., and no I do not plan on doing so, but you might be interested. Also worth noting, David Price is on the cover of BP2009.

His face shot is the second from the right. BP2009 features PECOTA projections and some other stuff I don't know about. My good friend Marc Normandin worked on  it though, so I'm confident there's some material worth absorbing.

Speaking of Normandin-books, did I mention he and I did a section apiece in the new Graphical Player annual? If you're into somewhat funky graphs and fantasy baseball, it's probably for you. Otherwise, I would suggest viewing a few demo pages from previous issues before making the purchase. It makes a good Christmas present too, although be forewarned that you aren't getting a ton of me, but just a snippet. That should've been my selling point.

Finally, I finished reading Derek Zumsteg's Cheaters Guide to Baseball. If you like baseball history, good writing, and facts (!) it's worth the purchase. It's not a sabermetric book either, leaving the "learning curve" at general baseball knowledge.

From CBS Sportsline:

Shortstop Jason Bartlett was voted the Rays' most valuable player, and he was a big part in Tampa Bay's improbable run to the World Series.

Now the Rays are willing to trade him, according to a baseball official who has spoken to the Rays. Not only that, but the Rays have also discussed trying to reacquire Delmon Young, the outfielder who they traded to the Twins last winter to get Bartlett and Matt Garza.

It doesn't appear that the Young talks got very far, and neither did Tampa Bay's efforts to acquire Denard Span, another Twins outfielder. But the Rays are continuing to search everywhere for another outfielder, and Bartlett could be what it takes to acquire one.

Most defensive metrics were down on Bartlett this season, despite loving him before. I'm assuming that's due to a knee injury and he'll bounce back. The funny thing is, I wonder if a team would actually buy into Bartlett being the reason for the Rays success and overpay because of it.  Trading Bartlett would kill the Rays. Despite what I've said in the past, others who said I simply wasn't paying attention were right. Did anyone see our win-loss record without JB? Man, oh man.

The good news is the Rays are being quite creative in their search for a new outfielder. Bartlett is hardly irreplaceable, and if the Rays can use the "MVP" label to sell high, by all means they should do so. I'll try and dig up some defensive data on Reid Brignac in the meanwhile.