To be sure, I planned on checking in with an IDOIT update much sooner. But like I said the first time around, I intend on making mad money with this thing. IDOIT is brilliant, and it's my meal ticket, baybee. Sure enough, I've been talking turkey with an enterprising executive from the Can-Am League who is looking for a leg up on the competition. (I cannot reveal the name of the team this gentleman represents, of course.)We began our discussions early in the week, and I just didn't feel comfortable going public with more of these projections until I got a read where this whole thing was heading. So I attempted to get ahold of my financial advisor, but he was out of town attending the christening of his grandson, R.J. Offer III. Finally, the First called back, and his advice was to . . .
Well, we're still in discussions. Time cannot stand still for these talks. IDOIT must march onward and upward, and today we take a look at Tim Redding.
One thing the team executive wanted---something echoed by literally dozens of other emailers intrigued by IDOIT---was more information on how the system works. Perhaps I was a bit stingy in my prior post. Hence, I will introduce two concepts factored into every IDOIT projection. They are both key factors in how the system evaluates Redding.
First, we have the Historical Overseer Tendency, or "HOT." What HOT measures is whether the pitcher and a member of management have historical ties. Has Jim Bowden acquired the pitcher before? Was the pitcher a former Brave? Has the pitcher had previous interaction with Manny Acta? With Redding, we have a connection with Acta. From all available accounts, it was a positive experience, or at least not a negative one. IDOIT's knowledge of this past connection builds in a presumption that Acta will regard Redding favorably. All things equal, Acta will rely on Redding earlier and stick with him longer.
The second concept is called Substantial Historicity In Trajectory, which has no suitable acronym. Basically, what this measure does is try to find historically comparable pitchers---not just based on stats like similarity scores but also based on career path, including peaks and valleys. Here, IDOIT finds a guy like Jeff Suppan rather similar. Suppan received an initial opportunity, didn't take advantage of it, and had to build his way back up the ladder, if you'll pardon the mixed metaphor. On the other side of the mountain, Suppan emerged as a fairly reliable innings guy, and IDOIT sees something similar from Redding.
Okay, so add it up: HOT - Substantial Historicity In Trajectory---this stuff tells us to expect an opportunity, patience, and some degree of steadiness and reliability. In other words, Redding is the Nationals' number two starter, such as these appellations matter for this pitching staff.
Here's how IDOIT sees the contours of Redding's 2007 season:
| APP NO. | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | DEC. | YTD ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.2 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | L 0-1 | 6.32 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | NO D | 5.38 |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | W 1-1 | 3.85 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | L 1-2 | 5.25 |
| 5 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | L 1-3 | 5.52 |
| 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | NO D | 5.34 |
| 7 | 6.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | NO D | 5.14 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | W 2-3 | 4.66 |
| 9 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | W 3-3 | 4.39 |
| 10 | 5.2 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | NO D | 4.87 |
| 11 | 6.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | L 3-4 | 4.81 |
| 12 | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | L 3-5 | 5.48 |
| 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | NO D | 5.47 |
| 14 | 6.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | L 3-6 | 5.24 |
| 15 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | L 3-7 | 5.48 |
| 16 (RL) | 2.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | NO D | 5.34 |
| 17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | W 4-7 | 4.99 |
| 18 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | W 5-7 | 4.87 |
| 19 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | NO D | 4.89 |
| 20 | 7.1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | NO D | 4.73 |
| 21 | 6.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | L 5-8 | 4.76 |
| 22 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | L 5-9 | 4.90 |
| 23 (CG) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | W 6-9 | 4.70 |
| 24 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | L 6-10 | 4.69 |
| 25 | 5.2 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | L 6-11 | 5.00 |
| 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | W 7-11 | 4.86 |
| 27 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | NO D | 4.82 |
| 28 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | W 8-11 | 4.70 |
| 29 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | L 8-12 | 4.79 |
| 30 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | L 8-13 | 4.88 |
| 31 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | W 9-13 | 4.82 |
| 32 | 7.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | L 9-14 | 4.77 |
| 33 | 5.1 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | NO D | 4.87 |
Okay, okay.
Let's recap what IDOIT gives us with Redding. First, it sees an opportunity from the get-go. Second, it predicts a strong degree of faith from Acta; there's only one brief demotion to the bullpen, comprising a single appearance, right before the all-star break. Otherwise, Acta shows faith in Redding, and Redding cashes in on it in the second half. As you can see, the ERA drops about a half-run, but the big difference is innings. He finds his pace, pitches deeper into games, and basically goes from about a 180-inning guy to a near 200-inning guy in a few months.
Finally, let's take a look at IDOIT's projected year-end totals, including peripherals:
| G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | W | L | ERA | SV | CG | SHO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 32 | 196 | 214 | 115 | 106 | 72 | 140 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 4.87 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
All in all, that's a pretty valuable season for this team. It's not great, but it's innings; he projects to pace the staff in innings pitched. In a matter of speaking, Redding looks sort of like the new Ramon Ortiz. At his low, low cost, it's certainly a good pickup and a decent risk. For a rotation in near-complete flux, Redding has promise as a staff stabilizer.
Next up for IDOIT: Shawn Hill.