[The 2006 Nationals were a lot of things, but fundamentally sound wasn't one of them. Of course, they also weren't a lot of things, but one thing they were was horridly unreliable on defense. Guest poster VladiHondo, a respected commenter and BPG denizen, takes a look at where the Nats were defensively in 2005-06, with a special eye on last season's erratic performance, and looks ahead to the upcoming season. My warm and appreciative thanks to VladiHondo for a most noteworthy contribution. --- Basil]
I helped Basil with some 1980s Atlanta Braves research and he for some reason invited me to submit some of my meanderings for use in his blog.
On the Ballpark Guys forum I wrote a little blurb on why I thought the Nats could be better this year. The best thing about Federal Baseball, is there is more room to expand it here. Bad news is, I think I went overboard!
My comment at BPG focused on the 3 main components of the game: Runs Scored, Runs Allowed and Fielding. (Just the newsbreaking statement that baseball is made of hitting, pitching and defense (and Jenn Lopez) should be enough to WOW ya and say, "Who the hell is this clown?")
Back to business, in two seasons we’ve observed quite a difference in results, from leading the division for much the year in 2k5, to permanent and deserved cellar dwellers in 2k6. We had a better offense in 2k6 with Soriano, NJ’s almost full year, and the first year of Zimmy, but did worse in the Win/Loss column. Basically we sucked due to terrible starting pitching and horrid defense.
Here’s our key numbers for the two years; rankings are for the Major Leagues:
YEAR RS MLB RNK 2005 639 30th 2006 746 23rd
In 2005, Boston lead the majors with 936 runs, and the Yankees led with 930 in '06.
YEAR RA MLB RNK 2005 673 9th 2006 872 28th
In 2005, they were 94 runs allowed off the major league lead. (The ballpark helped.) In 2006, they 74 runs off the major league worst. (Guess the ballpark didn't help!)
YEAR FLD% MLB RNK 2005 .985 11th 2006 .978 30th
The Braves were first in 2005, Boston in '06.
YEAR ERRORS MLB RNK 2005 92 8th 2006 131 30th
If you can believe it, the Nats had twice as many errors as the team with the fewest!
* * * *
So despite scoring over 16% more runs, we had 10 less victories due to a staggering drop in pitching and defense. We gave up almost 30% more runs!! We made over 42% more errors!!! These numbers are mind-boggling and make you wonder how did win 71?
I knew starting pitching was terrible last year but the extent that fielding was also surprised me. So I did a positional comparison from last year to this. The WOW’s were:
- We fielded better with Castilla at 3b than Zimmerman
- We fielded better with Guzman at SS than Clayton/Lopez
Now that we've discussed some highlights, stick around for the complete analysis. This will involve numbers, and the following stats are from Baseball-Reference.com. I love their historical stats. I had to chop off those guys with less than 100 innings at a position to tighten this up. I know fielding is a tough area to capture in stats, but I’ll concentrate on its simplest form, with errors, fielding percentage, and a simple range factor. Except for catcher, the last two columns are league average values for fielding percentage and range factor.
CATCHER
This was easy, Schneider is Mr. Steady: same errors, same fielding percentage in both years---5 errors with .993 field. pct. He caught more in 2k6, probably because we had worse backups.
2006 CA Inn GS G PO A E DP FP PB Schneider 990 111 123 695 52 5 8 .993 5 RFick 164 18 26 104 7 1 2 .991 4 BHarper 104 13 14 77 1 1 0 .987 0 Team Total 1436 162 162 998 69 11 10 .990 11
2005 CA Inn GS G PO A E DP FP PB Schneider 926 105 113 654 52 5 10 .993 3 Bennett 523 57 64 384 25 6 1 .986 4 Team Total 1458 162 162 1046 77 11 11 .990 7
FIRST BASE
No big difference in these numbers except NJ did poorly last year. He had 10 more errors, after he only had 5 in 2k5. It wasn’t that he didn’t pick up the balls in the dirt as well, since that would be the thrower’s error. It was his own throws going awry.
2006 1B Inn GS G PO A E DP .994 *9.41 Johnson 1252 143 147 1159 93 15 91 .988 9.00 Vidro 61 8 8 54 3 0 7 1.000 8.41 Fick 59 6 13 57 5 0 4 1.000 9.46 Team Total 1436 162 162 1321 103 17 106 .988 8.92
2005 1B Inn GS G PO A E DP .993 *9.64 Johnson 1098 126 129 1017 95 5 109 .996 9.11 Wilkerson 185 19 25 172 14 1 20 .995 9.03 Baerga 86 9 11 65 2 1 2 .985 6.96 Team Total 1458 162 162 1335 115 9 138 .994 8.95
SECOND BASE
As much as everyone bemoans the defense of Jose Vidro, he wasn’t that bad and there wasn’t much of a difference between the two years. Vidro had an above average fielding percentage but below average range.
Overall, for all 2b, errors went down by two with about the same number of chances. Oh yeah, look at Carlos "Cheese" Baerga’s range factor for 2nd Base! He’s a Man-imal! The field cannot contain him!! So beware of the small sample size.
2006 2B Inn GS G PO A E DP .982 *5.05 Vidro 901 105 107 224 250 5 53 .990 4.73 Anderson 231 26 32 51 71 5 13 .961 4.75 Castro 228 24 29 65 58 2 13 .984 4.86 Team Total 1436 162 162 354 401 12 82 .984 4.73
2005 2B Inn GS G PO A E DP .981 *4.98 Vidro 665 79 79 134 191 5 39 .985 4.40 Carroll 427 44 63 96 145 5 33 .980 5.07 Spivey 190 21 22 34 62 0 14 1.000 4.55 Baerga 46 5 7 15 19 3 3 .919 6.65 Team Total 1458 162 162 316 457 14 102 .982 4.77
THIRD BASE
It seems all the 2nd half of 2005, all I heard was how old and crippled Vinny Castilla was and how he was blocking Zimmerman. Looking at the cold, hard facts comes up with a shocker. At least defensively, there's an argument we were better at 3b when with old pro Vinny manning the hot corner!!! Zimmerman, for all his future Gold Glove hype, had more errors, a lower fielding percentage, and only a .001 advantage in Range Factor!
2006 3B Inn GS G PO A E DP .954 *2.69 Zimmerman 1368 157 157 152 260 15 30 .965 2.71 Jackson 21 1 6 1 5 4 1 .600 2.57 Team Total 1436 162 162 154 274 19 31 .957 2.68
2005 3B Inn GS G PO A E DP .958 *2.77 Castilla 1171 135 138 142 209 11 23 .970 2.70 Zimmerman 111 11 14 6 26 0 5 1.000 2.59 Baerga 100 10 20 7 16 2 1 .920 2.06 Team Total 1458 162 162 157 266 13 29 .970 2.61
SHORTSTOP
This is the first of two fielding black holes that appeared last year. Guzman was dissed for poor hitting, poor fielding, and poor conditioning. In reality, he was far superior to anything we put there last year in his stead. Errors go from 18 (2 of those by Zimmerman in his 9 innings of playing SS) to 32! Fielding avg goes from near league average (.976-.974) to WAY below league avg (.972-.953). Guzzie’s range wasn’t even league average but it was closer than we were last year.
Note: Damian Jackson was absolutely HORRID playing the left side: 8 errors in only 78 innings (roughly 9 full games). If he had played as many innings as Zimmy, he would’ve had 140 errors. A big deal was made last year of having a better, veteran bench in 2006. Well, they hit better, but when forced to play the field, they were no Jamey Carroll.
2006 SS Inn GS G PO A E DP .972 *4.41 Clayton 720 83 86 110 240 11 39 .970 4.37 Lopez 601 70 71 89 162 14 34 .947 3.76 Jackson 57 4 16 8 12 4 0 .833 3.14 Team Total 1436 162 162 217 433 32 75 .953 4.07
2005 SS Inn GS G PO A E DP .976 *4.51 Guzman 1161 133 142 217 327 15 85 .973 4.22 Carroll 241 23 41 53 65 0 18 1.000 4.41 Zimmerman 9 1 1 3 4 2 0 .778 7.00 Team Total 1458 162 162 277 409 18 105 .974 4.23
OUTFIELD
This was where the Nationals experienced another big jump in errors; in fact, errors doubled from 15 to 30. Now the nature of OF errors is there are not many dropped fly balls. Most these are due to throwing errors. Most wayward throws not only allow the runner to be safe, but invariably the ball gets by the fielder for one or two extra bases. I'm just thinking about it here, but it seems you could say each OF error = Run Allowed. If he didn’t score on the play, then he’s probably at 3rd.
Both years our outfield has better than average range factors in all three positions, which is good, . . . but the errors!
By the way, with 3 Ryans (Church, Zimmerman, Wagner) on the team, Kearns’ middle name is Ryan. [Mental Note, by Basil: Are they Toolsy Ryans?]
2006 LF Inn GS G PO A E DP .982 *1.97 Soriano 1373 158 158 326 22 11 9 .969 2.28 Team Total 1436 162 162 345 23 11 9 .971 2.31
2005 LF Inn GS G PO A E DP .984 *1.94 Byrd 386 41 54 100 5 2 2 .981 2.45 Church 334 37 51 77 2 0 0 1.000 2.12 Wilkerson 288 31 38 67 0 1 0 .985 2.09 PWilson 94 11 11 20 0 0 0 1.000 1.91 Team Total 1458 162 162 351 11 4 3 .989 2.23
2006 CF Inn GS G PO A E DP .988 *2.58 Byrd 393 44 57 125 1 1 0 .992 2.88 Church 369 42 51 122 1 2 1 .984 2.99 Logan 220 25 26 59 0 1 0 .983 2.41 Escobar 174 19 23 61 1 1 0 .984 3.19 Jackson 141 15 22 44 0 2 0 .957 2.79 Watson 56 7 8 17 0 0 0 1.000 2.70 Team Total 1436 162 162 454 6 8 2 .983 2.88
2006 RF Inn GS G PO A E DP .980 *2.11 Guillen 537 64 68 163 3 2 0 .988 2.78 Kearns 482 55 59 139 2 5 1 .966 2.63 Church 97 10 14 20 0 0 0 1.000 1.86 Team Total 1436 162 162 395 7 11 2 .973 2.52
2005 RF Inn GS G PO A E DP .980 *2.10 Guillen 1189 135 140 299 10 7 4 .978 2.34 Church 135 14 21 43 0 0 0 1.000 2.85 Wilkerson 45 5 6 12 0 1 0 .923 2.36 Team Total 1458 162 162 377 10 8 4 .980 2.39
And here are Kearns's totals for the season:
1228 144 346 7 7 2 .981 2.45
PITCHERS
For some reason, my perception (i.e. Ramon Ortiz) was that Nats pitchers were worse defensively last year than in 2005. But darn those stats, I was wrong. I could have sworn (i.e. Ramon Ortiz) we had sucked, but I guess my judgment was tainted by personal observation ("DAMN You Ramon Ortiz!!!"). Well, there was a big difference in range as the put outs and assists were down a lot from 2k5. Call it the Livan-is-a-tub-of-goo factor.
I’ll just give the total lines for Pitchers:
2006 PIT Inn GS G PO A E DP .957 *1.72 Team Total 1436 162 162 71 178 10 12 .961 1.56
2005 PIT Inn GS G PO A E DP .960 *1.75 Team Total 1458 162 162 88 192 12 16 .959 1.73
Stepping back for a second, let's review how the defensive personnel has evolved in what will soon be three seasons at RFK:
POSITION | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
---|---|---|---|
C | Schneider | Schneider | Schneider |
1B | Johnson | Johnson | Lee/Young/Broadway? |
2B | Vidro/Carroll | Vidro | Lopez |
3B | Castilla | Zimmerman | Zimmerman |
SS | Guzman | Clayton/Lopez | Guzman |
LF | Byrd/Wilkerson/Church | Soriano | Church/Restovich? |
CF | Wilkerson/Wilson | Byrd/Church/Logan | Logan/Escobar? |
RF | Guillen | Guillen/Kearns | Kearns |
Overall | Good | Bad | Better than Bad? |
At least hopefully the defense will be better than bad this season. Can it be worse than bad? Don't answer that.
* * * *
2007 FIELDING PROGNOSIS
Catcher - Schneider lagged a bit last year in throwing out basestealers, but his overall fielding is consistent. Expect the same, maybe an up-tick in thrown out stealing. We should improve mainly due to better backups. Fick is OK error-wise, and Jesus Flores is supposedly a stud defensively. He’s no Matt LeCroy, so that’s 2 fewer errors already.
First Base – If Travis Lee makes the squad, he will play a lot in late innings (if we ever have the lead!) and he’ll provide an up-tick. We won’t match Nick’s year in 2005, but we should be better than last year.
Second Base – This is a question mark. The team will be better without FLop at SS, but is he better than Vidro’s 2nd base? Range: hell yes! He was a little below average range wise as a SS but he’s faster and more limber than Jose was last year. Error wise, I have my doubts. First, he’s only played 78 innings at 2b, all the rest from the left side. Expect an up-tick, I’ll say a small one, around 15 2b errors. Marlon Anderson actually equaled Vidro’s total of 5 errors last year so having him gone will improve things in the field.
Third Base – Zimmy was not a disaster (despite being outplayed by Vinny!!). Hest we forget, his error count and his fielding pct was the same as Gold Glove Scott Rolen. But Rolen distanced himself from Ryan by his range, which at 2.89 was way above Zimmy’s barely above average 2.71 (avg = .2.69). Zimmerman is one of the hardest workers out there always trying to improve so expect an improvement. Not having Damian Jackson as a backup marks an improvement.
Shortstop – Guzzie just doesn’t make the mistakes Felipe does at shortstop, leading to a lower error count. Guzman’s range was below average in 2005 but it has been mostly league average or above previously. His error count his first 3 years was above 21-25, but since it's been 11-15.
Felipe’s range has rarely been as high as league average, and his error count hit 28 last year, his percentage has always been lower than league average. Look for a major drop in error totals for the position.
Left Field – Sure Soriano made all those assists. He also made all those errors. Church, if you look over the 2005 stats at all 3 OF positions, has good range and is a good fielder. He should cut down the LF errors. For some reason the name Mike Restovich has always provided an image of "lumbering" in my mind. [By Basil: Me too!] If he platoons with Church, he may wipe out Church’s range advantage, but won’t make mistakes for the simple reason if you can’t make it there, you can’t screw it up.
Center Field – The logic says "Nook is fast and will get to more balls" but the stats don’t match that. His range is a little above league average for his career, his fielding pct a little lower. Church, despite all his malingering and (clubhouse cancer-ing!), has had fine range in CF (though I did see do a "deer in the headlights" routine on a line shot right at and over him). It may be we have a Church & Casto/Escobar & Restovich platoon in CF & LF.
Right Field – Austin Kearns’s full season numbers show a much better ballplayer than just his Nat stats. His career fielding stats show a much higher range factor than average with slightly better field percent. No worries here.
Pitching – Well, we’re going to be much younger on the mound so the reasoning would be quicker, more agile, more dexterous. Problem hasn’t been errors, but getting to balls last year. That should improve.
So overall I believe we will improve vastly upon our 2006 error numbers but will not reach the heyday year of 2005 when the Nats were in their glory year!
Here's what we've done, and here's what I think looking ahead:
ERRORS BY YEAR AND POSITION
Position | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
---|---|---|---|
C | 11 | 11 | 9 |
1B | 9 | 17 | 12 |
2B | 14 | 12 | 15 |
3B | 13 | 19 | 15 |
SS | 18 | 32 | 20 |
LF | 4 | 11 | 6 |
CF | 3 | 8 | 6 |
RF | 8 | 11 | 8 |
P | 12 | 10 | 12 |
Totals | 92 | 131 | 103 |
Last year the 131 errors became 69 unearned runs; 28 less errors would be about 15 less unearned runs at that ratio, and that alone may account for a few more wins (I know there’s a formula out there for that!).
Now all we need is for the pitching staff to have the same 27% drop in runs allowed, from 5.03 to 3.95 and we’ll be back to .500 baseball!!! Hey, spring time is the time for delusions.