FanPost

Very interesting Adam Dunn article from last year

Is 2009 his best season ever? Perhaps, or perhaps the luck is just starting to normalize.

http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/2008/12/29/adam-dunns-rotten-2008-luck

According to this article, with normalized BABIP and HR/FB ratio(he hit 16 balls over 400 feet that went for outs) in 2008 Dunn's approximated stat line was 265/420/600(as opposed to his actual: 236/386/518)

2008 approximated line: 265/420/600

2009 line: 280/405/568

Okay, so it isn't perfect, but it's pretty darn close. ( 15 point BA differential, 15 point OBP differential, 32 point slg pct differential) Let us also not forget, that the season is stll occuring. It is very possible that Dunn ends up with numbers extremley similar to his normalized 2008 stat line.

The most telling part of the article though, is this:

"Granted, Dunn's career SLG is "only" .518. But normalize his 2008, and it is over .540 in 4 of the last 5 years".

2009 slugging pct: 568

If we normalize the HR/FB Rate without factoring in BABIP, the numbers look like this:

246/ 397/571

without the BABIP, the batting average is much lower, but his 0BP and slg pct when normalized by the HR/FB ratio are practically identical... coincidence?

Some very good baseball journalism here, in my estimation... is the man psychic? No... just using good old fashion SABRmetrics that some still maintain(unbelievably) "don't tell us anything"...

Perhaps Adam Dunn's career season isn't so shocking after all.

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