Draft, Team Building & ROY talk (a conversation from MLBTR posts)

A conversation I had/have from Nationals Spend Big In Draft @ MLBTRs.

Nats Fan Post:  Those were the same no-brainers as Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin in the NHL. It's the rest of the draft class the past several years and particularly this year that has the Nats GM and fans excited.

Pirates Fan Post: That's all well and good, but the fact is, how can you call yourself a great scouting and development org when most of those players haven't even reached the majors yet?

My Response: Seriously? Zimmerman, Espinosa, Desmond, Storen,  traded and developed Morse, Clippard, H. Rodriguez, traded for Ramos, drafted half the bullpen.  

A Team with a farm system that was decimated by the MLB owning it and other teams poaching it came to DC 6 years ago.  Rizzo became the VP of operations, scouting director (and some other titles) a year later; with decent drafts working with an idiot of a GM in Bowden.  Since he took over as GM he has had some very productive drafts, takes awhile to fix a farm system devoid of talent.  Quit focusing on the "no brainers" of Strasburg and Harper, the farm system isn't highly ranked because a lot of the bigger names ARE in the majors now, not blocked by older players like most teams.

Pirates Fan Post: Yes, really.  I never said that those players aren't going to be great.  But to call yourself great before any of those guys has had a major impact is silly.  A couple players making it to the majors doesn't denote great.  It's a nice start, but nothing more.

My Response:  "We're the talk of the industry right now" doesn't = "calling himself great"It means this and last year they signed a LOT of players other teams either said were impossible to sign and passed on; or have drafted in prior years and could not sign.  A Lot of highly rated prospects in a short amount of time... he has a right to toot his own horn for getting that done.

Also, if you mean the players, will leave out Strasburg and Harper, who haven't done anything yet...
Zimmerman: Silver Slugger & Gold glove
Espinosa: Likely to win ROY. (articles on this)(check fangraphs, ranked #1 NL ROY #'s)
Ramos: Has been in the ROY conversation. (articles on this)(check fangraphs, Tied #2 in ROY #'s)(also 2nd ranked defensive catcher in NL)
Morse: Is in MVP talks if he keeps up what he's been doing this year. (articles on this)
Clippard: All-Star setup-man
Storen: Rookie with 5/6th most saves in NL
Outside of those who are proving themselves or have...
Desmond is a highly rated young player, but Rendon is likely to take over @ 2nd; moving Espinosa back to SS where he is even better.
That gives you a lineup of drafted/developed/traded for prospects likely for 2013 of:
1st: Morse
2nd: Rendon
SS: Espinosa
3rd: Zimmerman
LF: Harper
CF: ? free agent signing, possibly Brian Goodwin from this years draft.
RF: Werth (only outside signing, hope he starts hitting, but still 2nd ranked defensive RF in NL)
Bullpen young/highly rated, almost all from Nats. system or trade/developed, topped by Clippard/Storen.
Starting pitchers:
1. Strasburg, 2. Zimmermann, 3. ?, 4. ?, 5. Lannan/young guy.
the 3/4/5 guys likely come from the 5/6 highly rated Pitching prospects from this and last years draft + peacock/Milone in AAA now.  Could sign a quality veteran also.
That's a LOT of work Rizzo has done.  Even though i think you took it out of context, he can call himself great if he wants to.  Next year the Nats will be competitive, 2013 onward they should be very very good.  Sooner they get a CF/lead-off guy (if not Goodwin) and Starting Pitchers up, the sooner it all comes together.

Braves Fan Post:  I doubt Espinosa is ROY. I think

Freddie Freeman has it in the bag.

My Response: Danny Espinosa: AVG .223(14th), HR 17(1st), RBI 55(2nd), SB 12(1st), BB 8% (11th)

Freddie Freeman: AVG .295(3rd), HR 16(2nd), RBI 60(1st), SB 4(7th), BB 8.4% (10th)

They both strike out a LOT.  Can argue that Freeman gets a LOT more chances @ the plate because of the braves lineup.  Freeman is largely hitting in the 3rd spot this year, so they have to pitch to him.  Even when he hits from the 5th spot, usually they put chipper or Heyward behind him.

As an example of Espinosa getting pitched outside/inside a LOT, he has been HBP 16 times, leading rookies by a LOT, compared to Freemans 5.  With that Freeman has a .112 lead in OPS and a higher AVG.

Danny Espinosa: Flding: 3.2 (2nd), Bsr 2.5 (2nd)
Freddie Freeman: Flding:  -8.3 (worst among all qualified rookies), Bsr -2.3 (worst among all qualified rookies), 

Combined Espinosa has a WAR of 2.7(1st) vs Freemans WAR of 1.6(4th)
(Ramos has a WAR of 1.7, tied for 2nd)

The divide mostly comes with being a 2 way player; do the voters only look at power #'s regardless of teams? or, Do they look at the total player? Hitting + Defense + what they do on-base?  If its just power regardless of oppertunities/teams they play on, they are 4th and 6th compared to other rookies, Freeman having the edge.  With Freemans team and where he is being hit/protected he has a higher AVG/OBP then other rookies with comparable games played.  Espinosa is 4th on that list, with similar games played, none of the others have the benefits Freeman has with how the Braves are playing him.  Not knocking him for it, if is productive there, DO IT!  Compared to Espinosa he is a 1 way player (defensive liability even), it all depends on how the ROY is voted on, on the total player or if its just the AVG; and do they look at the oportunities the ROY candidates are being given on their teams?

Comparable power, comparable HR, comparable RBI, Comparable walk %, Comparable SO%.  It comes down to average vs opportunities; + accounting for SB/Base-running and Fielding/Defense.

Even with Espinosa's recent slump, he still leads in overall #'s.


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