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NLDS Game 1 WPA: Does the team with the most LOB win in the postseason? Nationals 3, Cardinals 2

Gio is jittery, the zone is floating, and the Nats can't string their hits together--UNTIL THEY DO!!


Via FanGraphs

  • One-hitter: Gio Gonzalez (-0.1%) walks seven in 5 IP, giving up 2 R on a WP and a sac fly, with 5 Ks.
  • If clutch existed? He could be it: Kurt Suzuki (-8.8%) singles in a second-run run to put the Nats ahead, briefly (+10.2%).
  • About clutch? Might not be it: Jayson Werth (-16.8%) is 1-5 with 7 LOB, including a bases-loaded K to end the 6th (-12.1%)--the HR-robbing catch doesn't show up in his WPA. Zook fans with runners 2nd/3rd in the 8th (-18.7%). Danny Espinosa (-24.6%) is 0-3 with 6 LOB and an unhelpful 8th inning sac bunt (-8.6%).
  • Exciting relief: Craig Stammen (-7.2%) throws a clean 6th, but melts down in the 7th, loading the bases with no outs. Ryan Mattheus (+15.8%) comes into the jam and gets a shutdown, with an FC force at home followed by a GDP (+11.1%).
  • Now THIS is clutch (if "clutch" existed): Ian Desmond (+27.6%) is 3-4 with an 8th-inning single to put runners corners with no outs (+21.5%). Tyler Moore follows up 2 outs later with a pinch-hit, two-run single to put the Nats ahead (+46.6%).
  • The return of the True Fireman: Tyler Clippard (+13.7%) works around an error to get a shutdown in the 8th, thanks to generous strike 3 call to end the inning (which I think the Nats had earned by then).
  • Never had a doubt: Drew Storen (+19.2%) makes the most of a liberal zone with a shutdown ninth to save the curly-W.

(Although Team LOB was tied 10-10, Nats "won" individual LOB 22-21.)