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NLDS Game 4 WPA: Rats. Nats lose 5-6

The Ross/Reynaldo monster was not as effective as we'd hoped, and the bats and bullpen sputtered at the finish line after a valiant effort.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Source: FanGraphs

(What do these graphs mean?)

  • Not ready for prime time: Joe Ross (-39.1%) does not get it done today, giving up 4 runs while only getting 8 outs on 3 Ks, 2 walks, and 2 HBP (of which one scored and the other drove in a run).
  • Early hope: Daniel Murphy (+37.2%) singles in a run to put the Nats up in the first (+10.3%).
  • Excellent bridge: Oliver Perez (+7.4%) gets the last out in the 3rd to strand the bases loaded then throws a scoreless fourth to earn a shutdown.
  • Rally time: Jayson Werth (+15.2%) caps his 2-3 night with a bases-loaded HBP to drive in the first run of a two-out, 7th-inning rally (+8.6%). Murphy follows up with a game-tying, two-RBI single (+29.0%).
  • [Sad trombone]: Anthony Rendon (-17.5%) is 0-4 with 6 LOB, fanning to end the 7th-inning rally with the go-ahead run on third (-8.6%).
  • Still bridging: Marc Rzepczynski (+6.3%) gets two outs in the 7th to keep the game in range and earn a shutdown.
  • But he gets lefties out now! Blake Treinen (-26.4%) gets the last out of the 7th but melts down in the ayeth, with a HBP coming around to score the go-behind run.