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NLDS Game 5 WPA: I blame WMATA. Nats lose 3-4

It was a tightrope all night, with decisions to be second-guessed, opportunities taken and missed, and too much of the wrong kind of drama.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Source: FanGraphs

(What do these graphs mean?)

  • Maybe one batter too long: Max Scherzer (+15.8%) gives up one run (to lose the lead) in 6+ IP (on the first pitch of the 7th, his last of the game) fanning 7 and walking 2.
  • Always the early hope before our souls are crushed: Danny Espinosa (+7.3%) actually gets a hit, even a hit with RISP, to give the Nats a one-run lead in the 2nd (+13.0%). He's 1-3 with a walk and a run scored on the night.
  • I thought he should have pitched the 6th, or at least started the 7th: Sammy Solis (-13.3%) is the fourth man to pitch in the 7th, coming in with two runners on and giving up the go-behind run to earn a meltdown (-17.8%).
  • Matchups: Shawn Kelley (-20.4%) comes in with two runner on after Solis and cashes them both in to earn a meltdown of his own.
  • Alls he does is hit bombs: Chris Heisey (+18.7%) bashes an 0-2 pitch out to left over the flower bed for a two-run dinger to get the Nats within one with no outs in the 7th (+18.7%).
  • Hopes dashed (again): Bryce Harper (+22.5%) singles to put runners corners with one out in the 7th (+14.2%). Jayson Werth (-5.5%) promptly srikes out (-14.5%), then (after an intention walk to load the bases), Anthony Rendon (-26.8%) strikes out to end the inning and quash the rally (-15.5%).
  • Keep us in it: Mike Mark Melancon (+7.1%) gets the last out in the ayeth and throws a scoreless 9th to keep it close and earn a shutdown.
  • Hopes dashed (again, still): Bryce and Werth walk to put two on with one out in the 9th (+9.5% and +12.5%, respectively). Daniel Murphy (-9.3%) flies out (-16.1%) and Wilmer Difo strikes out (-16.6%) to end the season.