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Game 57 WPA: Even closer than it looked. Nats win 10-9

Roark got BABIPed to a fare-thee-well, but the bats came through with long ball, blooper, and slop to get the lead. Naturally, Paps had to (almost) ruin it.

This picture looks better than your pitching line today by a good bit.
This picture looks better than your pitching line today by a good bit.
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Source: FanGraphs

(What do these graphs mean?)

  • This is why P2K is better: Tanner Roark (-30.2%) gets plenty of weak contact over the course of 3 IP, most of which dropped in for hits as he ended up letting in 5 runs with 3 Ks and a walk.
  • Back-to-back junk-timers: Daniel Murphy (+12.4%) cranks a two-run bomb almost into the Ohio River to get the Nats within three in with one down in the 4th (+8.2%). Wilson Ramos (+24.1%) follows him with a weak pop-up over the RF wall to get the game within two (+8.0%).
  • Two-out rally: Stephen "Remember Me?" Drew's two-out, pinch-hit RBI single gets the Nats within one in the 4th (+11.5%), while Ben "4-3" Revere (+10.5%) follows him with a game-tying RBI single of his own (+11.9%).
  • Lucky or good? Take "lucky" every time: Anthony "My Smile is My Umbrella" Rendon (+8.3%) hits into a bases-loaded double play two-run fielder's choice+error to kill a 5th-inning rally put the Nats ahead in the 5th (+14.1%).
  • Inners eater crusher: Sammy "I Got This" Solis (+13.5%) throws three scoreless in relief after Roark, fanning six and walking one to earn a shutdown.
  • Half-turnabout: Felipe "Every Day" Rivero (-13.8%) only gets one out in the 7th before giving up 3 runs to earn a meltdown. Shawn "Maybe I Should Have Stayed In For The 9th, Too" Kelley (+12.9%) gets the next five outs without allowing a run to earn a shutdown.
  • Not confidence-inspiring: Jonathan "I'm Too Old For This [Nonsense]" Papelbon (+8.9%) does not fail to disappoint, putting the losing run on second before recording an out in the bottom of the 9th... but also getting the last two out without lettting any more runs in to earn a shutdown.

Today's WPA brought to you by afternoon starts: