FanPost

A Suggestion for Mike Rizzo

The Washington Nationals roster is effectively complete. Mike Rizzo basically kept the gang that won 97 games last year together for one more shot at playoff redemption before the ominous 2018-2019 offseason arrives to yank Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Madson from Nats Park. This presumed last ride doesn’t need much more, and with a payroll already pushing into the luxury tax, all that is left to do is make a couple minor league signings to compete for the final spot in the rotation. With that in mind, Mike Rizzo should be sure to offer a contract to Ubaldo Jimenez.

I know. I know. He had an ERA above six, and one closer to 7 at that, this past season, but he is a better player than those numbers indicate.

Trotting out to the pitcher’s mound at Camden Yards makes it much harder to post a respectable earned run average. The stadium itself consistently ranks as a hitter friendly ballpark by park factors with a short right field wall. Combine that with having to pitch in front of an outfield that recorded -35 defensive runs saved and that 6.81 ERA becomes a bit more palatable. The switch from Oriole Park to the practically neutral Nats Park (Park factor of 98) would save Jimenez runs. In addition, Swapping Adam Jones, Trey Mancini and Seth Smith for Michael Taylor, 11.6 DRS in less than 120 games, Bryce Harper, and Adam Eaton, a gold glove finalist in his most recent full season would really help Jimenez bring his ERA down.

A look beyond that atrocious ERA also reveals promising peripherals, even Jimenez’ 5.57 FIP sells him short. His 8.7 k/9 is above his career average of 8.28, and Ubaldo Jimenez sits between Jake Arietta and Gerrit Cole on the strikeout rate leaderboard among starting pitchers. Jimenez’ walk rate of 3.66 was by no means elite, but it too was better than his career average of 4.08 BB/9. The driving force behind that 5.57 FIP was a 2.08 HR/9. That 2.08 number is second highest among starting pitchers, and notoriously unreliable in predicting future home run rates. Jimenez’ xFIP, with normalizes home run rate to league average was a respectable 4.52, and his xFIP- was basically league average at 103. In addition, Jimenez has never had an issue with the gopher ball before in his career. From 2014-2016, his HR/9 was 1, and there is no reason to expect that he wouldn’t return to that norm in 2018.

Let me be clear, I don’t expect Ubaldo Jimenez to return to being the player he was in his days with the Rockies and Indians. As most players do when they age, Jimenez lost zip on his fastball. He went from a young ace throwing 97 to a back of the rotation guy throwing 90, but that Nats ought not to be worried about that. Jimenez’ velocity has plateaued, with his fastball sitting in the low 90’s for the past three years.

In addition, Jimenez relied primarily on his sinker, throwing it 41% of the time despite the fact that it was his worst pitch by fangraphs pitch value and batters hit .281 with a .435 slugging against it. Decreasing the usage of his sinker in favor of more four seam fastballs, sliders and curveballs could easily bring about more success for Jimenez.

Remember that this is a player worth 1.7 fWAR in 2016 and 2.7 fWAR in 2015. This past season is merely an aberration that must be looked past. Steamer projects Jimenez to be worth 1.5 WAR this next season. ZIPS projects him to be a 0.7 WAR player this next season, in other words, a capable back of the rotation starter.

Lastly, there is no downside to this contract. These deals often include opt outs at the end of spring training if the player doesn’t make the major league roster. The worst case scenario is that a multi-billionaire Ted Lerner spends a million dollars while Jimenez toils away in Syracuse after giving up 10 runs in 2/3 of an inning. If you really hate the idea of Ubaldo Jimenez, remind yourself that Jimenez is not worse than Tommy Milone.

Ubaldo Jimenez will probably hold out the rest of the offseason for a major league deal, but unless a rebuilding team signs him to eat innings, Jimenez could very well be left for Mike Rizzo to swoop in with a minor league deal.

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