FanPost

Yes, the pitching is bad. But Nats hitting (specifically at Nats Park) may well be a bigger problem for the 2022 Nats so far

An old baseball saying (Jim Posnanski, among others) is a team should score four runs or more runs per game if they want to win consistantly. So far the 2022 Nats do this on the road; they fail miserably at home. This, far more than "did DM pull the starting pitcher too early/late?" is why the Nats are currently 12-24.

Seriously, arguing over whether Corbin should have been pulled earlier is debatable but largely besides the point with the Nats scoring zero runs at home again--part of a consistent pattern where in 13/20 home games they have scored two (2) or fewer runs. Nats scoring so far in 2022: Home: 1,3, 0,4(w),6(w),1(w),2,3,1,2,3,2,1,2,2,8(w),1,1,13(w),0.

56 runs in 20 games for 2.8 runs/game, and of those runs 31/56 runs (55%) in just four games.

0 runs x2, 1x 6, 2x5, 3x3, 4x1, 6x1, 8x1, 13x1 (13/20 games 0-2 runs; 16/20 <4 runs)

Road: 11(w),4,3(w),4,7(w),4,3,14(w),3,11(w),10(w),2,7,0,7(w),4.

94 runs in 16 games for 5.875 runs/game, 46/94 (49%) in just 4 games but even in the other games consistently putting up 3+ runs.

0 runsx1, 2x1, 3x3, 4x4, 7x3, 10x1, 11x2, 14x1 (2/16 games 0-2 runs; 11/16 >= 4 runs). Nats Park effects? Opponents score 5.375 runs/game at their parks, 5 runs/game at Nats Park. So Nats Park doesn't significantly bother our opponents. Just the Nats.

For those who care about run differential, the Nats have been outscored 56-100 (-44 run differential) at home in 20 games. On the road the Nats have *outscored* their opponents 94-86 (+8 run differential). More to the point, the Nats road run distribution median is a respectable four runs, (5/16 games <4 runs, 7/16 games >4 runs, 4/16 games with 4 runs). The team is more likely than not (11/16 games) to score 4+ runs on the road, and the old baseball saying about "score four or more runs a game" is validated somewhat by the Nats respectable 7-9 road record. Granted, the pitching staffs faced home/away may have something to do with it.

HOME: NYM(x2), ARI, SF, FL, HOU

ROAD: ATL, PIT, SF, COL, LAA

That said, the Nats have lit up some pretty good pitching on the road (they really smacked SF on the road...not at Nats Park) while having trouble against indifferent pitching at home (ARI). More to the point, they have been fairly consistently productive on offense when on the road, with 11/16 games at 4+ runs.

Contrast that with 16/20 home games where the Nats *failed* to score four runs. Somewhat appallingly, to date the 2022 Nats home scoring distribution median is a sad two (!) runs per game (8/20 <2 runs, 7/20 >2 runs, 5/20 = 2 runs). Consistent with the old baseball saying about four runs/game, the Nats are 4-0 in home games where they score four runs or more...and 1-15 when they don't (5-15 overall at home). Hard to win much when scoring two runs or less in 65% of your home games. So yeah, the pitching is the pitching. It's...not good (opponents have no trouble with the "score four or more runs" thing vs the Nats, with an average of 5.17 runs/game overall). We can (and do! and will continue to!) argue about how DM should use the starters and the pen. And hope Stras and Ross will help if/when they get back.

But unless/until the Nats figure out why they can't consistently score more than two runs a game at home when they are consistently scoring four plus runs per game on the road the pitching will hardly matter.

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